都市活動人口數推估-以台北市信義區西村里為例

Abstract

人口資料在社會經濟中的發展與規劃層面為相當重要之基礎規劃資料，而都市作為一每日吸引大量民眾流入的區域，其商業區在密集的土地使用下勢必會成為人口聚集的地方，也成為災害管理的熱點區域。同時，在人口集中的區域，居民生活在都市內產生各種活動，也會因活動類型的不同而產生不同消耗量的能資源與廢棄物，因此，日間人口能幫助了解都市代謝議題中能資源流動的問題，而活動人口數則在都市防災規劃中是重要的資料，了解區域內的活動人口數有助於管控災害發生時區域內民眾的安全以及安排相關之所需的人力與物資。 本研究除了回顧過去日間與活動人口推估方法之外，亦試圖釐清我國目前在日間以及活動人口之定義上與各國間定義之差異。將分別從兩個議題層面來探討，首先是都市代謝議題，從城市層級角度出發的台北市日間人口推估，將根據人口普查資料結合交通部資料，並以台北市為例建立新推估日間人口之方法。最後是以都市防災議題為主，針對重要的商圈與交通節點類型，並以台北市信義區西村里（信義商圈）為例建立活動人口推估之方法，從中分析探討西村里活動人口時序性之變化以及其在平日與假日所呈現之差異。 本研究之結果可作為都市環境負荷量相關之研究中人口基礎資料之參考，以及相關災害管理規劃作業時，如：模擬災害時人數之參數設計與推估區域內防災物資需求量時參考。Population data are crucial information for social economic development and urban planning. Since urban areas attract many people flowing into daily, with such intensive land use, business districts will certainly be an agglomeration of population, and hence be hot spot in the disaster management. Meanwhile, in the area where population agglomerates, the residents will result in different kinds of energy and materials consumption and wastes emissions. Therefore, daytime population can help us understand how resources flow as a part of the urban metabolism issue. Understanding the population within an area benefits the safety and risk management of residents during hazards, and also the arrangement of relief goods supply. This study reviews previous approaches for daytime and de facto population. In addition, we try to identify the differences between the definition of daytime and de facto population in our nation and that in other countries. We discuss it in terms of two different perspectives. The first perspective is the urban metabolism issue. We estimate daytime population in Taipei city on the urban level. We combine census data and data from the Ministry of Transportation and Communication and use it to build a model for daytime population estimation in Taipei city. The last perspective is the urban hazard mitigation issue. Targeting important shopping districts and traffic nodes, we build a model for de facto population estimation in Xichun Township, Xinyi District, in Taipei City (Xinyi shopping district). We then discuss the change in time of the de facto population in Xichun Township and the difference between workdays and weekends. The results of this research can be used as a reference for basic population data in urban environmental capacity related research. In addition, it can be used for modeling population before disaster and arranging manpower and relief goods in related disaster planning and management.