民主鞏固因素之影響性分析

Abstract

本文透過評估群眾對民主鞏固概念的認知程度，探討臺灣與東亞民主國家其人民如何形塑民主鞏固的價值體系，並比較各國之間的差異性，同時討論影響臺灣民主體制評價較低的主要原因為何。本文以影響因素的不一致性，來解釋臺灣民主評價指標表現不佳的情況，並進行臺灣與其他東亞國家的比較，針對影響臺灣民主鞏固的政治與經濟因素作用是否與其他東亞國家有所不同進行分析。在研究方法上，本文運用分量迴歸分析各國政體表現對民主鞏固評價的影響性，是否隨民主鞏固程度而有所改變，進而分析影響臺灣與東亞各國民主評價的主要因素為經濟表現亦或是政治表現。 實證結果顯示，臺灣民眾於政體表現對民主鞏固的影響性與東亞其他國家人民並不相同。臺灣民眾主觀經濟評價對民主鞏固指標的影響存在不一致性，主要表現在最低與最高民主評價指標不具顯著影響性。相反地，日本與泰國民眾於政府表現評價的影響性，似較主觀經濟表現評價的影響性更為重要。最後對於南韓、蒙古與菲律賓等國家的民主鞏固指標而言，則不存在影響因素的不一致性。

Based on the evaluation of the public’s degree of cognition toward the concept of democratic consolidation, this study aims to explore how the value system of democratic consolidation was shaped by the citizens of Taiwan and other countries in East Asia and compare the differences among them. This study conducts the empirical tests using the Quantile Regression Model and analyzes the impact of the sampled governments’ performance on the assessment of democratic consolidation and that whether such an impact will change with the degree of democratic consolidation. This study further analyzes the key factors affecting democracy assessment of Taiwan and other five countries and that whether these factors are economic or political performance. Evidence shows that the impact of Taiwan’s government performance on democratic consolidation is different from that of other five countries in East Asia. Heterogeneity exists in the impact of Taiwanese citizens’ subjective economic assessments on the indicators of democratic consolidation, among which heterogeneity exists in the impact of economic assessments but insignificant in the impacts on the lowest and highest indicators of democratic assessments. As far as citizens in Japan and Thailand are concerned, the impact of these citizens’ assessments on governments’ performance seems to be more important than subjective assessments on economic performance. At last, as far as citizens in South Korea, Mongolia and Philippines are concerned, consistence does exist in the factors affecting the indicators of democratic consolidation.