擴增實境之新興科技預測以專利分析法探討
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2020
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本研究檢索從1999年至2019年擴增實境之技術專利，以技術生命週期之角度探討擴增實境之技術，包含擴增實境四大項分類技術以及其17項子技術之技術發展趨勢。使用關鍵字與核準專利之公告日期作為專利檢索策略。本研究透過專利件數分析探討擴增實境以及各項技術之整體發展趨勢。透過國際專利分類碼分析，探討擴增實境以及各項技術所偏重之類別為何。藉由公司別分析，了解投入擴增實境以及各項技術領域之廠商為何。本研究以各技術檢索歷年累積的專利數量作為評估技術之績效，採用羅吉斯成長模型（Logistic Growth Model）從而得知其技術的生命週期。研究發現有兩項子技術處於成熟期之階段，為頭部/眼部追蹤技術與語音互動技術；即將於2021年邁入成熟期階段的技術為情緒識別技術、感官技術、場景/物體識別技術、全息圖技術及人機介面技術。
This research searches the augmented reality technology patents from 1999 to 2019, and discusses augmented reality technology from the perspective of technology life cycle, including the four major classification technologies of augmented reality and its 17 sub-technologies . We use keywords and issue date of patents as a patent search strategy. This research explores augmented reality and the overall development trend of various technologies through the analysis of the number of patents. Through the analysis of international patent classification codes, explore the augmented reality and the types of technologies that are preferred. Through company-specific analysis, understand the manufacturers that have invested in augmented reality and various technical fields. In this study, the number of patents accumulated in each technology search over the years was used as the evaluation technology performance, and the Logistic Growth Model was used to learn the life cycle of the technology. The study found that there are two sub-technologies in the mature stage,head/eye tracking technology and voice interaction technology; the technologies that will enter the mature stage in 2021 are emotion recognition technology, sensory technology, human-machine interface technology, Scene/object recognition technology and hologram technology.
This research searches the augmented reality technology patents from 1999 to 2019, and discusses augmented reality technology from the perspective of technology life cycle, including the four major classification technologies of augmented reality and its 17 sub-technologies . We use keywords and issue date of patents as a patent search strategy. This research explores augmented reality and the overall development trend of various technologies through the analysis of the number of patents. Through the analysis of international patent classification codes, explore the augmented reality and the types of technologies that are preferred. Through company-specific analysis, understand the manufacturers that have invested in augmented reality and various technical fields. In this study, the number of patents accumulated in each technology search over the years was used as the evaluation technology performance, and the Logistic Growth Model was used to learn the life cycle of the technology. The study found that there are two sub-technologies in the mature stage,head/eye tracking technology and voice interaction technology; the technologies that will enter the mature stage in 2021 are emotion recognition technology, sensory technology, human-machine interface technology, Scene/object recognition technology and hologram technology.
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擴增實境, 專利分析, 技術生命週期理論, 羅吉斯模型, Augmented Reality, Patent Analysis, Life Cycle Theory, Logistic Model