以專利分析法研究虛擬實境之科技產業之預測

Abstract

虛擬實境是當今科技界討論最廣泛的概念之一。隨著各類維度空間技術市場的應用和機遇，虛擬實境的技術、產品以及整個產業，對消費者的購物、體驗娛樂、工作和參與社交活動的生活方式產生重大改變。本研究透過專利資料庫，以虛擬實境重點產業的專利數量作為衡量的專利指標，針對虛擬實境之產業關鍵字，包含虛擬實境五大項分類以及33項子分類之技術發展趨勢，以2000年至2021年檢索，使用關鍵字與核准專利之公告日期作為專利檢索策略。透過國家別分析得出，前五名排名依序為美國、韓國、中國大陸、日本及台灣。透過公司別分析可知主要領導廠商排序，第一為環宇顯示技術股份有限公司(Universal Display Corporation, UDC)，第二為微軟(Microsoft Technology Licensing)，第三為國際商業機器公司(International Business Machines Corporation, IBM)。以及國際專利分號找出重點發展領域，第一名為G06F 3/01，其次為G06T 19/00，排行第三為G02B 27/01。此外，本研究還運用羅吉斯成長模型(Logistic Growth Model)推估出虛擬實境自2018年進入成長期，2024進入成熟期，並預估將於2024年時達到飽和點，2029年以後進入衰退期。Virtual reality is one of the most widely discussed concept in the tech field today. While applications of dimensional space have been implanted in various technology products and solution in the technological market, it has brought significant changes to the habits and ways of how people experience their purchase, entertain, working and social interact behaviors. Through the patent database, this research uses the number of patents in key industries of virtual reality as a patent index, and focuses on the industry keywords of virtual reality, including five major categories and 33 sub-categories of the technology development trends. This research searched through 2000 to 2021, by using keywords and the announcement date of the approved patents as the patent search strategy. The result of country analysis demonstrated that the top five countries are the USA, South Korea, China, Japan and Taiwan ranking in order. For the result of the company analysis suggested that, the top three leading manufacturers are Universal Display Corporation (UDC), Microsoft Technology Licensing (MS) and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) ranking accordingly. And finally, through the International Patent Classification (IPC) analysis, we have G06F 3/01 ranking as the top, following by G06T 19/00 at second place, and G02B 27/01 the third.iii Moreover, we have successfully predicted the cycle of virtual reality by applying the Logistic Growth Model. This research indicated VR entered the growth period since 2018, and will reach the mature stage with the market saturation in 2024, then the proximate market decline period will be around 2029.