以可變空間理論規劃智慧型手機之最適化產能

Abstract

全球智慧型手機市場自2008年開始快速成長，2014年全球智慧型手機出貨量約達12.7億台，年成長率達25.5%。隨著智慧型手機平均單價持續下探，新興市場開始中低階智慧型手機需求，預估2018年全球智慧型手機年出貨量有機會達到18億台，累計裝置數量全球將達38億台。觀察2013年的出貨成長率由50.7%下滑到2014年的25.2%，預估2016年全球智慧型手機出貨量全球成長率將下滑到9.3%，從數據顯示智慧型手機市場成長趨緩已漸趨近飽和。平均售價日益低落，產品生命週期漸短，且關鍵零組件之技術參數已趨如莫爾定律等之物理極限，產品差異化之難度漸增，再加上新興國家貨幣匯率波動劇烈及貿易屏障、平均工資高漲等問題，智慧型手機製造廠之產能極需最適化，以確保投資最小，產能最適。現今智慧型手機產能最適化之重要性日增，過去的研究主要都是在現有的資源底下進行產能最適化，但少有文獻或業界專家探討相關議題，而本篇論文要提破現有的框架，考量內外部的資源讓自己的產能及獲利最大化突破傳統數學規劃法柏拉圖前緣之限制，計算出手機產能最適化以位於台灣之全球主要智慧型手機業者為實證標的，驗證研究方法之可行性，研究結果與分析架構作為智慧型手機業者產能規劃之變數，求取最適之產能，以達成獲利與產能最佳方法之用。The global smartphone market lifecycle has gradually entered the saturation stage. Besides, as the average sales price of smart phones increasingly drop continuously, the product life cycle get shorter, and the parameters of smartphone key components hit the physical limitations, differentiations of the smart phones becoming daily difficult. Most middle to low end smart phones have become commodities. How the capacity can further be optimized by leveraging outsourcing capacities so as to break the traditional Pareto frontier and achieve the meta-optimum are the aspired goal being pursued by the smart phone vendors. Albeit the topic is very important, very few or no past works focused on this issue The Changeable Space Technique based on the De Novo Programming approach. The proposed analytic technique can break the traditional Pareto frontier. An empirical study case based on one of the world‘s leading smartphone manufacturer being located in Taiwan as used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analytic framework, the well-verified analytic framework can be used to optimize the capacity of smartphone factories.