「中日國交正常化」之日本決策過程研究(1946～1972)
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2014
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二次大戰後，國際情勢出現重大變化。美蘇關係的緊張，迫使世界各國必須對加入東西陣營做出選擇。隨著自由主義與共產主義之間意識形態對立的激化，最終發展成世界性的冷戰局面。
日本是二次大戰的戰敗國，由美軍進行佔領與統治。但冷戰局勢的發展，使美國不得不改變世界戰略佈局，同時亦改變了日本的國際角色定位。美國試圖將日本建造成自由主義陣營的亞洲反共堡壘，於是將佔領政策由初期的非軍事化與民主化，轉為扶植日本經濟，並協助儘快簽訂和約，使日本能成為主權獨立之國家，繼續堅守自由民主陣營之立場。
另一方面，戰後日本的國內政治發展漸趨成熟，五五年體制的形成使日本邁向穩定的兩大政黨制。自民黨的長期執政讓日本的政策發展保有一貫性的思想核心。但事實上為「一黨獨大」的「黨內政權交替」，亦使得以鞏固政權與安定社會為目標的保守體制，成為妨礙日本發展自主外交的主要因素。
美國對韓戰的戰略佈局使台海關係固定化，因而產生國際關係中的「兩個中國」問題。由於日本的外交政策基本上無法跳脫「對美協調」與美日同盟框架，因而在此外交原則下，日本僅能選擇維持與中華民國政府的正式外交關係。然而日本自始即認定中共的崛起與未來發展的可能性，故對兩岸採取「政經分離」方式，試圖同時維持與中共的溝通管道與交流途徑，以因應國際現實的急遽變化，並能爭取最大限度的日本國家利益。
日本在對「中」外交政策上存有「實現中日國交正常化」之政治思想核心，最好的證明就是自吉田茂內閣時期起，不論國內外的政治環境如何改變，日本仍堅持對兩岸採取「政經分離」政策。隨著冷戰局勢趨緩、美國對「中」政策的變化、中共的國際地位提升等國際政情發展，以及日本國內高度經濟成長帶動的海外市場需求增加、「中」日民間貿易往來頻繁、文化教育交流提升，乃至「親中」的政治或民間人士積極推展等，實現中日國交正常化的政治思想逐漸增強且表面化。但另一方面，日本追求國內政治社會的安定，鞏固並維持自民黨政權，解決「沖繩歸還」問題，並希望藉此以完成國家主權的全面恢復。為尋求此等國家利益的實現，首要條件即為獲得美國的支持與合作，因此日本必須繼續堅守「對美協調」之外交原則。此外，基於《中日和約》及國際道義等理由，日本亦須維持與中華民國的正式外交往來。日本的「實現中日國交正常化」之核心思想逐漸成形擴大，但國內保守體制與「對美協調」的國際現實卻牽制此一動向，於是形成與「政經分離」原則之間的矛盾。換言之，如何權衡政治理想與國家利益的現實得失，成為考驗戰後日本歷任內閣的最大課題。
此外，保守體制下的決策過程存在著「以和為貴」之日本傳統政治文化。理應為行政與立法機構之最高指導者的首相，因此種政治文化的限制而僅成為政府政策的代言人。以組織考量為優先，強調「政策一體性」與「決策統一性」的「常規型」日本政治決策過程，使日本在外交的自主追求上受到相對的牽制。但當「詹森衝擊」、「尼克森衝擊」發生後，日本一方面擔心搭不上「中國」這班列車，一方面又害怕「越頂外交」的歷史重演，因此對美日同盟關係的穩定性產生恐懼與懷疑。在恐懼最大化的情況下，日本開始尋求自助，積極發展對「中」自主外交。而中共除經濟發展需求外，亦希望得到日本協助以重返國際社會，以及獲得國際對其「代表中國」之正統性的承認。在雙方各取所需的情況下，中日雙方積極發展關係正常化，而日本亦在領導能力強硬且國家發展目標明確的田中、大平的執政期間，改採不受「以和為貴」政治文化限制的「非常規型」決策過程，終於完成中日國交正常化。
本論文說明日本在兩岸關係上呈現擺盪狀況，但在對「中」政策上則存有「實現中日國交正常化」之一貫性核心思想。基於現實主義觀點，為尋求國家利益的最大化，日本採取「非常規型」決策過程，同時在個人風格與目標明確的領導人帶領下，完成中日國交正常化的實現。
After World War II, there were major changes in the international situation. The strained US-Soviet relations forced the world to make a choice to join either eastern or western camp. With intensified opposition in-between liberalism and communism, it eventually developed into a Cold War worldwide. Japan was a defeated nation in World War II, occupied and dominated by the U.S. military. However, with the development of the Cold War, the United States had to change the global strategic deployment which subsequently changed the position of Japan in international role. American tried to construct Japan as an anti-communist bastion in Asia by shifting its earlier policy of demilitarization and democratization to supporting the Japanese economy as well as to assisting Japan to sign off a peace treaty so that Japan can become an independent country in upholding freedom and democracy. Meanwhile, the domestic political developments was getting mature in Japan. The emerging of 1955 System had led Japan towards a stable two-party system. The long-ruling of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party allowed the policy development to have consistent core value. However the "one-party dominance" also became the major factor preventing Japan from having independent diplomacy. The American strategic deployment in Korean War has immobilized the cross-strait relations, resulting in “Two Chinas” issues. Since Japan's foreign policy is basically based on "the coordination with the United States" and the framework of the US-Japan alliance, Japan can only choose to maintain formal diplomatic relations with the ROC government. However, since Japan recognized the China and its potential development in the future ever since the very beginning, it took the “separation approach of politics and economy” to maintain communication channels with Mainland China to maximize the national interests of Japan. Japan has kept the core political idea to "achieve the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy". The best proof is that since Shigeru Yoshida cabinet, regardless of any changes in the domestic or international political environment, Japan insisted on the “separation approach of politics and economy. With the slow-down of Cold War, the changed policy of the United States toward China, the advancement of China’s international position, as well as the increased demand from overseas markets in Japan driven by high economic growth, the frequent interactions in-between Japan and China, the promotion of culture and education, and even the aggressive promotion of pro-China by politicians or individuals had reinforced the political thinking of normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy. While Japan’s idea to achieve the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy was expanding, the domestic conservatism and the “coordination with the United States” in international reality were contradictory to the separation approach of politics and economy. In other words, how to balance the national interests and political ideals has become a critical issue for the postwar Japanese Cabinet. In addition, the decision-making process in the conservative system of Japan’s traditional politics always emphasized "value the harmony”. The prime minister who was supposed to provide the guidelines for execution and legislation has only become the spokesman of government policy due to such limited political culture. When "Johnson shock" and "Nixon shock" occurred, Japan worried that it couldn’t catch the ride of "China" and also feared that "overtop diplomacy" might repeat. As a result of this, it had fear and suspicion about the stability of the US-Japan alliance and it started to develop positive diplomacy with China. For China, it needed Japan’s assistance to return to international society in addition to the economic development so as to get the international recognition of its orthodoxy of “China”. To get what they needed, both parties tried to normalize the relations aggressively. With the tough leadership of Tanaka and Ohira's ruling, Japan adopted "non-conventional type” decision-making process instead of traditional “value the harmony” and finally accomplished the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy. This paper describes the swinging status of Japan’s policy towards cross-strait relations, though with the consistent core idea "to achieve the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy”. Based on realistic perspective and to maximize the national interests, Japan adopted a "non-conventional" decision-making process plus the leadership with apparent personal style and specific targets to achieve the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy.
After World War II, there were major changes in the international situation. The strained US-Soviet relations forced the world to make a choice to join either eastern or western camp. With intensified opposition in-between liberalism and communism, it eventually developed into a Cold War worldwide. Japan was a defeated nation in World War II, occupied and dominated by the U.S. military. However, with the development of the Cold War, the United States had to change the global strategic deployment which subsequently changed the position of Japan in international role. American tried to construct Japan as an anti-communist bastion in Asia by shifting its earlier policy of demilitarization and democratization to supporting the Japanese economy as well as to assisting Japan to sign off a peace treaty so that Japan can become an independent country in upholding freedom and democracy. Meanwhile, the domestic political developments was getting mature in Japan. The emerging of 1955 System had led Japan towards a stable two-party system. The long-ruling of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party allowed the policy development to have consistent core value. However the "one-party dominance" also became the major factor preventing Japan from having independent diplomacy. The American strategic deployment in Korean War has immobilized the cross-strait relations, resulting in “Two Chinas” issues. Since Japan's foreign policy is basically based on "the coordination with the United States" and the framework of the US-Japan alliance, Japan can only choose to maintain formal diplomatic relations with the ROC government. However, since Japan recognized the China and its potential development in the future ever since the very beginning, it took the “separation approach of politics and economy” to maintain communication channels with Mainland China to maximize the national interests of Japan. Japan has kept the core political idea to "achieve the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy". The best proof is that since Shigeru Yoshida cabinet, regardless of any changes in the domestic or international political environment, Japan insisted on the “separation approach of politics and economy. With the slow-down of Cold War, the changed policy of the United States toward China, the advancement of China’s international position, as well as the increased demand from overseas markets in Japan driven by high economic growth, the frequent interactions in-between Japan and China, the promotion of culture and education, and even the aggressive promotion of pro-China by politicians or individuals had reinforced the political thinking of normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy. While Japan’s idea to achieve the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy was expanding, the domestic conservatism and the “coordination with the United States” in international reality were contradictory to the separation approach of politics and economy. In other words, how to balance the national interests and political ideals has become a critical issue for the postwar Japanese Cabinet. In addition, the decision-making process in the conservative system of Japan’s traditional politics always emphasized "value the harmony”. The prime minister who was supposed to provide the guidelines for execution and legislation has only become the spokesman of government policy due to such limited political culture. When "Johnson shock" and "Nixon shock" occurred, Japan worried that it couldn’t catch the ride of "China" and also feared that "overtop diplomacy" might repeat. As a result of this, it had fear and suspicion about the stability of the US-Japan alliance and it started to develop positive diplomacy with China. For China, it needed Japan’s assistance to return to international society in addition to the economic development so as to get the international recognition of its orthodoxy of “China”. To get what they needed, both parties tried to normalize the relations aggressively. With the tough leadership of Tanaka and Ohira's ruling, Japan adopted "non-conventional type” decision-making process instead of traditional “value the harmony” and finally accomplished the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy. This paper describes the swinging status of Japan’s policy towards cross-strait relations, though with the consistent core idea "to achieve the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy”. Based on realistic perspective and to maximize the national interests, Japan adopted a "non-conventional" decision-making process plus the leadership with apparent personal style and specific targets to achieve the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy.
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Keywords
中日國交正常化, 「對美協調」外交原則, 「非常規型」決策過程, 「以和為貴」, normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomacy, diplomatic principle of "coordination with the United States", “non-conventional" decision-making process, "value the harmony"