臺灣民眾的民粹態度與民主態度：以2020年總統選舉為例

Abstract

本研究從大眾層次出發，分析民粹主義對民主正當性的影響。我們將解析臺灣民眾的民粹態度，分析其與民主態度的關係。過去研究大多主張民粹主義不利民主，然而本研究認為民粹態度的不同面向應可能對民主態度有不同的影響。因此，我們將以「權變論」作為本研究的基礎。本研究將民粹態度界定為「人民主權」、「反菁英」、「反建制」三個面向，民主態度分為「民主滿意度」與「民主支持」。我們採用TEDS 2020年總統選後調查，分別建立多元線性迴歸模型、二元邏輯迴歸模型，以釐清民粹態度與「民主滿意度」、「民主支持」的關聯性。研究結果如下：首先，我國的民粹主義者較可能為男性、政治信任低、施政評價低的民眾。第二，有「人民主權」態度者較會對民主體制展現正向情感，應有益民主正當性。第三，「反菁英」態度的民眾對民主運作有負面評價，也較不會展現其對民主制度的絕對支持，「反菁英」面向應有害民主正當性。總的來說，不同面向的民粹態度對民粹態度有不同的影響，符合本研究「權變論」的主張。故民粹主義可能對民主正當性產生威脅與壓力，也可能有助維繫民主正當性，我們不全然要以負面觀感看待民粹態度。This study examines the impact of populism on democratic legitimacy from popular attitudes perspective. Using a"contingency theory" framework, we define populist attitudes based on three dimensions: "popular sovereignty," "anti-elitism," and "anti-establishment." Through Multiple regression analysis and Binary logistic regression model of data from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study（TEDS 2020）, we explore the relationship between "satisfaction with democracy" and "support for democracy." Findings indicate that individuals with certain characteristics, such as being male, having low political trust, and negative government performance evaluation, are more likely to exhibit populist attitudes. Those with a"popular sovereignty" attitude show positive emotions towards the democratic system, enhancing legitimacy. However, those with an "anti-elitism" attitude hold negative evaluations of democratic functioning and express less absolute support for democracy. Overall, different dimensions of populist attitudes have diverse effects on democratic attitudes, supporting the "contingency theory" proposed in this study. Populism may pose threats or pressures to democratic legitimacy, but it can also help sustain it. Thus, we should not solely view populist attitudes in a negative way.