自動駕駛車輛之新興科技預測：以專利分析法探討
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2019
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Abstract
本研究以專利分析法與技術生命週期之角度探討自動駕駛車輛及其相關等11項重點技術之技術發展趨勢。使用關鍵字、國際專利分類號與核准專利之公告日期作為專利檢索策略。本研究透過專利件數分析探討自動駕駛車輛產業以及各項技術之整體發展趨勢。透過國際專利分類碼分析，探討自動駕駛車輛以及各項技術所偏重之類別為何。藉由公司別分析，了解投入研發自動駕駛車輛以及各項技術領域之廠商為何。本研究以自動駕駛車輛及11項重點技術之累積專利數量作為衡量技術績效之專利指標，以羅吉斯成長模型 (Logistic Growth Model) 描述其技術生命週期，並以費雪成長模型 (Fisher-Pry Growth Model) 衡量技術滲透比率。研究結果指出，自動駕駛車輛、主動車距控制巡航系統 (Adaptive Cruise Control, ACC)、動力系統 (Propulsion System)、轉向系統 (Steering System) 及穩定系統 (Stability System) 目前為技術生命週期中成長期之階段；車道維持系統 (Lane Keeping Assist System, LKAS)、盲點偵測系統 (Blind Spot Detection, BSD)、自動停車輔助系統 (Active Parking Assist, APA)、輪速感知系統 (Wheel Speed Sensor)、都會行車輔助系統 (Traffic Jam Assist)、警告系統 (Warning System) 與光達 (Light Detection and Ranging, LIDAR)，目前皆為技術生命週期中成熟期之階段。
This study adopts patent analysis and life cycle perspectives to explore the technological trends of autonomous vehicles and 11 key technologies associated with autonomous vehicles. We use keywords, international patent classification, and the issue date of patents as a patent search strategy. The research explores the overall development trend of the autonomous vehicle industry and various technologies through the analysis of the number of patents. We explore the number of autonomous vehicles and various technical categories through international patent classification analysis. Through company analysis, this research analyzes the investment in the development of autonomous vehicles and manufacturers in various technical fields. The cumulative number of patents for autonomous vehicles and 11 key technologies are used as a measure of technical performance. The life cycle is described by the Logistic Growth Model and the technical penetration ratio is measured by the Fisher-Pry Growth Model. The results of this study indicate that autonomous vehicles, the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), the Propulsion System, the Steering System, and the Stability System are currently in the growth stage. Lane Keeping Assist System (LKAS), Blind Spot Detection (BSD), Active Parking Assist (APA), Wheel Speed Sensor, Traffic Jam Assist, Warning System and Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) are currently in maturity stage.
This study adopts patent analysis and life cycle perspectives to explore the technological trends of autonomous vehicles and 11 key technologies associated with autonomous vehicles. We use keywords, international patent classification, and the issue date of patents as a patent search strategy. The research explores the overall development trend of the autonomous vehicle industry and various technologies through the analysis of the number of patents. We explore the number of autonomous vehicles and various technical categories through international patent classification analysis. Through company analysis, this research analyzes the investment in the development of autonomous vehicles and manufacturers in various technical fields. The cumulative number of patents for autonomous vehicles and 11 key technologies are used as a measure of technical performance. The life cycle is described by the Logistic Growth Model and the technical penetration ratio is measured by the Fisher-Pry Growth Model. The results of this study indicate that autonomous vehicles, the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), the Propulsion System, the Steering System, and the Stability System are currently in the growth stage. Lane Keeping Assist System (LKAS), Blind Spot Detection (BSD), Active Parking Assist (APA), Wheel Speed Sensor, Traffic Jam Assist, Warning System and Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) are currently in maturity stage.
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自動駕駛車輛, 專利分析, 生命週期理論, 羅吉斯成長模型, 費雪成長模型, Autonomous Vehicle, Patent Analysis, Life Cycle Theory, Logistic Growth Model, Fisher-Pry Growth Model