天氣因子對陽明山國家公園不同遊憩區遊客人數變動趨勢之分析

Abstract

在戶外遊憩場域中，天氣是旅遊的資源，本身具觀光吸引力外，也是影響遊憩活動品質的重要因子之一。旅遊期間天氣條件的舒適程度，將影響遊客感知，進而影響遊客人數的變動趨勢。本研究欲檢視陽明山國家公園2000-2012年九處遊憩據點，其各項天氣條件的舒適感受是否呈現在遊客人數變化中，分析各遊憩區對於遊客人數變動具相關且達顯著影響之天氣因子，並評價其旅遊天氣舒適指標之適用性。資料選取園區內兩座氣象站量測的氣溫、雨量、濕度、風速、日照、降雨日數等六項因子，配合三項天氣指標：舒適度指數(Temperature Humidity Index, THI)、旅遊氣候指數(Tourism Climate Index, TCI)及人體舒適度指數(ssd)予以分級。研究方法採行量化分析，以描述性統計了解研究期間遊客人數及天氣因子之概況、使用t檢定(t-test)檢視天氣因子的顯著性、最後採用變異數分析(ANOVA)檢視各遊憩區具有解釋力的天氣指標。陽明山區遊客人數變動趨勢皆有季節規律性，對於天氣的感知偏重可分為四種類型。此外陽明山國家公園不同遊憩區之地理位置及觀光資源類型的差異，使得高海拔遊憩區之遊客人數變化受到天氣舒適感受影響較大，此結果可供日後遊憩區經營管理之參考。另外，天氣舒適指標分析，也顯示TCI指標的分級對陽明山高海拔地區的遊客人數解釋程度最高。

Weather is one of the sources of tourism, and plays an important role in outdoor activities. It has the sightseeing attractiveness, and will be one of the important factors influencing the quality of outdoor activities. The comfort levels of weather will not only have significant influence on the perception of visitors, but also have further influence on the variation trend of visitors’ amount. The study is aimed to examine the variation trend of visitors’ amount caused by comfort levels of weather at 9 recreational sites in the Yangmingshan National Park. It also analyzes the influence of weather factors on the variation trend of visitors’ amount at each recreational site. In addition, the adaptability of the weather comfort index of traveling is also evaluated in this study. The six weather data, including temperatures, rainfalls, humidity, wind speeds, sunshine and rainy days, are collected from two weather stations at the park. These data are incorporated into three weather index, Temperature Humidity Index (THI), Tourism Climate Index (TCI), and SSD Index (ssd), for classification of comfort levels. The descriptive statistics is applied to understand the variations of the visitors’ amount caused by the weather factors. The study also uses t-test to examine the significance of weather factors. Moreover, the ANOVA is used to examine the adaptability of weather index at each recreational site. The variation trend of visitors’ amount at the Yangmingshan National Park has significant seasonal pattern, and the weather perception could be classified into four categories. In addition, based on the location and tourism sources at different recreational sites, the variation trend of visitors’ amount at higher elevation sites is variously affected by weather perception of comfort levels. This study result could be as reference for the management of recreational sites in the future. Besides, the weather comfort level analysis indicates that the classification of TCI index will be the highest explicable to the variation of the visitors’ amount at the high elevation recreational sites.