中國大陸周邊外交戰略之研究：兼論對兩岸關係之影響(2002-2012)

Abstract

冷戰結束後，中國大陸以營造其經濟發展的周邊安全環境，作為對外政策的最優先目標，全面拓展與周邊國家互動，奠定堅實的合作基礎。胡錦濤上台後，不僅延續既有「大國外交是關鍵、周邊外交是首要、發展中國家外交是基礎」外交路線，更全力構建「和平崛起」、「和平發展」、「和諧世界」理論，作為「睦鄰、安鄰、富鄰」外交政策指導方針，尤其強調和平發展、新安全觀與共同發展的策略運用，並以實際經濟資源作培養關係的工具，輔以雙邊、多邊、區域、一體化的多元戰略，進一步擴展與周邊國家及區域組織的關係，成效日益凸顯，包括積極參與區域多邊組織、妥善解決邊界及緩解南海爭議問題、與東協各領域合作不斷擴大、通過區域合作消弭分歧及強化經貿、能源合作、倡建自由貿易區及東亞一體化等，主動塑造區域組織機制與規範，充分展現其亟欲成為區域乃至全球強權的企圖心。縱然中國大陸現仍面臨諸多內、外制約因素及挑戰，但其未來持續發展的步調是不會改變，此由中國大陸續向裏海、波斯灣、中東地區、南太平洋地區等四個區域延伸之大周邊主義擴展可見一斑，顯示漸由「韜光養晦」向「有所作為」轉變，其未來發展動向，殊值密切關注。 當前兩岸和解即深受中國大陸對外戰略調整之影響，雙邊關係穩定發展，並持續擴大在各領域之緊密交流與合作，成效日益顯現。展望未來，兩岸關係仍然充滿變數，雖軍事上對峙危機暫時解除，但兩岸外交戰及情報戰則是方興未艾，現階段兩岸領導人均以「政經分離」的方式進行互動，兩岸交流成為各自化解內政壓力的擋箭牌，但要真正簽署兩岸「和平協議」及建構「軍事互信機制」，以達到和平共處、互信互助的理想境界，兩岸顯然還有漫長的路要走。Since the end of the Cold War, China has given top priority to fashioning a security environment in its periphery that is conducive to its economic development. Diplomatic efforts have since then been focused on developing comprehensive interactions with neighboring countries, Laying a solid foundation for mutual cooperation. After Hu Jintao took the helm, he continued the former government’s line of emphasizing great power and peripheral diplomacy and focusing on developing diplomatic ties with developing countries. Moreover, he kicked into full gear the theorization of “peace evolution,” “peaceful development,” and “harmonious world,” as the guidelines for his administration’s “good neighbor, secure neighbor and well-off neighbor” diplomatic policy. The Hu Jintao administration put special emphasis upon the strategic employment of peaceful development the new security view and joint development, and utilized financial and economic resources to nurture friendly ties with neighboring countries. In doing so, China also took advantage of bilateral, multilateral, regional and unified strategies to build on its ties with neighboring countries and regional organizations, which strategy has proved quite successful. For instance, China has been able to actively participate in regional multilateral organizations, ease tensions with neighbors, including those bordering the South China Sea, increase cooperation with the ASEAN in various respects, embark on regional cooperation to resolve disputes and strengthen economic, trade and energy cooperation. On top of that, China also actively worked with regional countries to creat free trade areas, took steps to facilitate East Asian integration and took the initiative to establish regional mechanisms and regulations, demonstrating its ambition to assume leadership in the region and the world as a whole. Despite its internal and external restraints and challenges China apparently would not stop moving forward. Witness China’s gradual expansion into the Caspain Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Middle East and the South Pacific region. This indicates that China is no longer biding its time. Instead, it is trying to make a difference and make its presence felt. Future developments merit close watch. Cross-Strait relations have been rather stable as the two sides pursue detente that is in line with China’s external strategy and Taiwan’s policy. Bilateral cooperation and exchanges in many areas have been increasingly closer and shown results. There is not without challenges for Taiwan, though. For instance, Taiwanese entrepreneurs have been gravitating toward China, enticed by its by its huge market and bountiful resources. Moreover, as China’s bilateral, multilateral and regional cooperation with its neighbors continues to deepen and widen, Taiwan is in danger of being marginalized. In the future, Cross-Strait relations are still full of uncertainties. Although there is temporarily no danger of military confrontation, the two sides of the Taiwan Straits will almost certainly engage in struggles on the diplomatic and intelligence fronts. At present, leaders of both sides in terms of achieving co-existence and mutual trust mechanisms.