氣候變遷下臭氧對農業生產影響之探討-以洋香瓜為例

Abstract

氣候變遷使得未來秋、冬季溫度明顯上升，使得臭氧污染有更加嚴重的趨勢。臭氧為二次污染物，透過前驅物質如氮氧化物(NOx)與揮發性有機物(VOCs)進行光化學反應後生成，高溫則會使光化學反應加劇，增加臭氧生成，而臭氧則會對部分敏感作物如洋香瓜造成傷害。本研究分析臺灣洋香瓜主要種植區，同時也是秋、冬臭氧污染嚴重的雲嘉南地區內氣溫與臭氧之關聯，並推估未來臭氧的變化，以衡量未來洋香瓜受到臭氧危害之風險。過去觀測資料分析結果顯示，研究區內氣溫與臭氧為正向關係，兩者之相關程度則隨地區與情境而不同。透過前項所得之氣溫與臭氧關係式，並運用未來推估氣溫之降尺度資料，推估研究區未來臭氧之變化，結果表明研究區在未來秋冬氣溫上升的情況下，將使臭氧濃度上升，使種植洋香瓜的臭氧危害風險增加，另透過臭氧暴露指標也顯示當前洋香瓜已然暴露在臭氧危害之下，未來臭氧濃度上升則將導致危害更加嚴重。目前較少關注到臭氧對洋香瓜之危害，然在未來臭氧濃度提高，可能使此類風險更嚴重且不容忽視，因此相關農業輔導、品種改良可將臭氧防治納入考量，後續亦可進行更多相關實驗研究，以期將臭氧危害防患於未然。Climate change will increase the temperature in autumn and winter in the future, which will male ozone pollution more serious. Ozone is a secondary pollutant. It is generated through photochemical reation of precursors such as NOx and VOCs. High temperature will aggravate the photochemical reaction and increase the generation of ozone. Ozone will cause harm to some sensitive crops such as melon. This study analyzed the relationship between temperature and ozone in Yunlin, Chayi and Tainan, the main growing areas of melon, and estimated the change of ozone in the future,so as to measure the risk of measure the risk of exposure to ozone.The results show that there is a positive relationship between temperature and ozone in research area. However, the degree of correlation between the two was different with region and context. Based on the relationship between temperature and ozone in the preceding section, and the downscaling data of future estimated temperature, the future ozone change were estimated. The result showed that under the condition of rising temperature in the future autumn and winter, the ozone would increase and the ozone hazard risk of melon planting would increase. In addition, the ozone exposure index also shows that the melon is already exposed to the ozone hazard, and the increase of ozone in the future will lead to more serious harm. At present, little attention has been paid to the harm of ozone to melon, However , the increase of ozone risk in the future may make such risk more serious and should not be ignored. Therefore, ozone control can be taken unto consideration in relevant agricultural guidance and breed improvement, and more related experimental studies can also be carried out in the future to prevent ozone damage in advance.