運用多尺度地理加權迴歸探討政府建設支出對住宅價格的影響

Abstract

本研究以桃園市為研究區域，將2019年至2023年間之住宅價格作為觀察指標，運用多尺度地理加權迴歸（MGWR）模型，量化不同區域位置的政府建設支出對住宅價格的實際影響程度，作為支出效益與區域政策表現之衡量依據。政府建設支出資料則整理桃園市施政成果資訊網中283項建設，總經費達新臺幣2,345億2,082萬1,000元。研究結果顯示，「運動遊憩文化場域經費」、「學校建設經費」及「社會住宅經費」在各地區普遍呈現顯著影響，顯示這些變數對住宅價格的影響強烈，且具有高度政策反應效果。「產業園區經費」及「殯葬園區經費」則屬於影響力雖強，但具高度空間異質性的類型，表示不同地區間影響程度差異顯著，政策推動時需審慎評估其地理條件與在地接受度。「軌道及大眾運輸經費」、「道路及水防治經費」、「土地開發經費」及「廳舍經費」影響力較小，僅特定區域具顯著性，空間異質性大，表示政策效益目前有限，應審慎投入或需追蹤後續成效。This study focuses on Taoyuan City as the research area, using housing prices from 2019 to 2023 as the key indicator. A Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model is employed to quantify the actual impact of government infrastructure expenditures on housing prices across different spatial locations, serving as a basis for evaluating the effectiveness of expenditures and regional policy performance. Data on government construction expenditures were compiled from the Taoyuan City Government Performance Information Portal, encompassing 283 construction projects with a total budget of NT$234.52 billion.The results indicate that expenditures on sports, recreation, and cultural facilities, school construction, and social housing exhibit strong and statistically significant effects on housing prices in most areas, reflecting high policy responsiveness and broad spatial applicability. In contrast, industrial park and funeral park expenditures, though influential, demonstrate high spatial heterogeneity, suggesting that their policy impacts vary significantly by location and must be implemented with careful consideration of site conditions.Meanwhile, expenditures on mass transit, road and flood control, land development, and government office buildings show relatively weaker impacts, with significance limited to specific areas. These findings imply that their policy benefits remain limited at present, warranting cautious investment and ongoing performance monitoring.