我國政府危機處理之研究－以一九九九年「兩國論」危機處理為例

Abstract

戰爭未曾在人類社會發展的歷史中間斷過，回顧歷次重大的國際戰爭中，探究戰爭的起因，多因和平處置不當而造成戰爭。所謂和平處置不當，就是未能妥善處理和平與戰爭之間的衝突與冗機而發生戰爭。因此，學者為了研究防此衝突與危機變成戰爭，遂發展出「衝突研究」（Conflict Studies or Research）或「危機研究」（Crisis Studies or Research）。古巴飛彈危機後，西方國家為防止情勢失控引爆核戰，而花費大批人、物力研究「危機處理」（Crisis Managing）的理論、方法和準則。 綜觀歷次的臺海危機，不僅關係中華民國的生存發展，也涉及美國的國家利益，更牽涉到整個亞太地區的穩定與和平，所以這個危機基本上是屬於「國際衝突」類型的危機，同時也是我國、美國與中共三邊的衝突危機。1999年李登輝總統「特殊國與國的關係」一詞出現後，顯見兩岸在「一個中國」的主權爭議下，政治下的歧見仍然存在，外交上的競爭並未稍歇，運事上的對峙也沒有鬆緩。儘管兩岸間的經貿往來與民間文化交流，更加熱絡頻繁，但這並不意味兩岸末來「相安無事」，反而可能因較多的接觸，而產生更多的利益衝突或危機。因此，在順應國際潮流局勢，考量國情發展，預期國家安全威脅及並顧「經濟」與「安全」的兩岸關係發展上，建構兩岸關係的「危機處理機制」，實為當前刻不容緩的議題。Thesis Summary Wars never stop in human history. Looking back those severe international wars, and studying how they begin, we found that wars mostly caused by dealing peace improperly. The phrase "dealing peace improperly" means that governments are unable to handle the interference and crises, then cause wars. Therefore, scholars develop "conflict research" and "Crisis studied" to prevent interference and crises becoming wars. After Cuba crises, western country spend lots of recourse to study teh theory, methods adn rules of crisis managing for protect from nuclear war caused by uncontrolledsituation. Over viewing previous Taiwan Strait crises, those crises not only affected development of the Republic of china, but also entangled tlhe interests of the United State and teh stability and peace of the Asia-Pacific. Therefore, the crises basically belong to the type of "International conflict". They are also three-sided crises among ROC, PRC, and the US.Lee Teng-hui, the former president of ROC, proposed the special state-to state relationship in 1999. Under the "one-China" argument between teh two sides across the Taiwan Strait, it is obvious that political difference, diplomatic competition, and military confrontation still remain. Increasing economic and cultural contacts do not necessarily lead to peace. In contrast, they may cause more conflicts of interests. Therefore, by coping with international trends, considering natinal development and future security threats, we have to well handle cross-strait economic and security issues. Establishing the crisis-managin mechanism to deal with cross-strait relationship is an emergent subject.