我國少年桌球國手三段技術分析

Abstract

本研究旨在探討我國少年桌球國手之三段技術是否達到及格指標，並分析我國少年男子國手與女子國手的三段技術是否有差異、桌球三段技術跟獲勝率之間是否有相關以及桌球三段技術對獲勝率是否有預測效果。 本研究以九十年我國少年國手排名賽男女選手各16人，共32人為研究對象，比賽場次共計120場為研究範圍，以桌球三段技術評估表為研究工具，將所有資料以桌球三段技術評估法、獨立樣本t考驗、皮爾遜積差相關法、逐步迴歸分析法進行統計分析。並將所得之預測方程式，以八十九年度我國少年桌球國手排名賽參賽選手（男子9名及女子8名）之所有比賽場次計有男子36場及女子28場共64場，進行交相有效化之驗證。經分析與討論獲得結論如下： 一、我國少年男子國手與少年女子國手之桌球三段技術分析中，發球搶攻段之得分率、發球搶攻段之使用率、接發球搶攻段之得分率、接發球搶攻段之使用率和相持段之使用率等五個變數皆有差異，其中以相持段之使用率差異最大。 二、我國少年男子國手的發球搶攻段之得分率、發球搶攻段之使用率、接發球搶攻段之得分率及接發球搶攻段之使用率的指標值為「及格」，相持段之得分率的指標值為「良好」，相持段之使用率的指標值為「不及格」。 三、我國少年女子國手的發球搶攻段之得分率、發球搶攻段之使用率及接發球搶攻段之使用率的指標值為「及格」，接發球搶攻段之得分率及相持段之得分率的指標值為「良好」，相持段之使用率的指標值為「不及格」。 四、我國少年男子國手之桌球三段技術的六個變數中，以接發球搶攻段之得分率與獲勝率的相關最高。 五、我國少年女子國手之桌球三段技術的六個變數中，以相持段之得分率與獲勝率的相關最高。 六、桌球三段技術分析可以有效的預測獲勝率，所得之預測方程式如下： 男生：Ŷ＝0.3779X1＋0.0634X2＋0.4218 X3＋0.2867 X5－0.0596 女生：Ŷ＝0.3222X1＋0.0645X2＋0.3190X3－0.0627X4＋0.3811X5－0.0119

The purpose of this study was to understand the significant difference in skill levels, gender, and winning rate in the three-stage skill of Taiwan’s table tennis junior national champions. In addition, the prediction of winning rate in the three-stage skill. The subjects of this study were the top 16 national players (men and women) in 2001. There were 120 games studied by the researcher. Research tool was the three-stage skill analysis table. The three-stage skill evaluation in table tennis, Independent t test, Pearson’s product-moment correlation, and Stepwise regression method were utilized for analysis. Multiple regression was used predict the 17 junior national champions (9 men and 8 women) who attend the rank competition in 2000. This competition includes 36 games for men and 28 games for women. The cross validation was also applied. The results were the followings:

1.There was significant difference in performance between men and women national champions of junior table tennis in six variable of the three-stage skill: scoring percentage in serve-then-aggress part, using percentage in serve-then-aggress part, scoring percentage in receive-then-aggress part, using percentage in receive-then-aggress part, scoring percentage in rally part, and using percentage in rally part.

2.For the junior national champion of men, it was “PASS” in scoring percentage in serve-then-aggress part, using percentage in serve-then-aggress part, scoring percentage in receive-then-aggress part, and using percentage in receive-then-aggress part. It was “GOOD” in scoring percentage in rally part, and it was “NO PASS” in using percentage in rally part.

3. For the junior national champion of women, it was “PASS” in scoring percentage in serve-then-aggress part, using percentage in serve-then aggress part, and using percentage in receive-then aggress part. It was “GOOD” in scoring percentage in receive-then-aggress part and scoring percentage in rally part. It was “NO PASS” in using percentage in rally part.

4.In six variable of the three-stage skill in table tennis, winning rate had highest connection with scoring percentage in receive-then-aggress part for junior national champion of men.

5. Winning rate had highest connection with scoring percentage in rally part for junior national champion of women.

6.The three-stage skill analysis can efficiently calculate winning rate. The formula is as below：

For man：Ŷ = 0.3779X1 + 0.0634X2 + 0.4218X3 + 0.2867X5 – 0.0596

For woman：Ŷ = 0.3222X1 + 0.0645X2 + 0.3190X3 – 0.0627X4 + 0.3811X5 – 0.0119