歐巴馬上任後中美關係敏感性與脆弱性之研究
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2011
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中美關係一直是21世紀大家最關注的焦點，美國在經歷金融風暴之後，其經濟始終萎靡，所以歐巴馬總統為了減緩美方的經濟壓力，華府決定拉近與北京當局的關係，因為在其經濟復甦的期間，美國需要中國大陸的支持。另外一方面，中國大陸總體實力逐漸轉強，從歐巴馬團隊親中的政策中可以看出端倪，然而中方現階段尚未達到稱霸全球的能力，所以需要透過經濟貿易厚植國家政治的力量，正因為如此，中國大陸亦需要美國的支持。總而言之，雙方皆期盼能夠透過經濟優先的合作政策，共同創造雙贏。
然而，由於中國大陸和美國的國家利益皆不盡相同，因此國際之間仍然存在許多不穩定的變數，所以當中國大陸接收到美國行為的外部刺激時，中方的「敏感性」和「脆弱性」都相當激烈，希望藉此爭取到更多的談判籌碼。儘管如此，中、美並非動輒以武力解決衝突與爭議，因為彼此都認知到合作的重要性，一旦合作破局，雙方都要付出相當嚴重的代價，所以倘若在中、美重視經濟互賴的前提之下，兩國則會邁向非零和的合作關係。
歐巴馬上台後至2010年底，中美關係時競時合，為了分析其中的變化，筆者在中美互動的政治、經濟、軍事與環保面向，各擇一個議題深入討論。本文以互賴理論的「敏感性」與「脆弱性」作為核心，透過這兩個測量指標檢視說明中美互動的關係以及比較各議題當中中國大陸的反應程度之差別，藉由分析與比較預測出中、美關係未來的走向。
Everyone focuses on Sino-U.S. relations in the 21st century. After 2008 financial crisis, the economy of the United States has always been malaise, so the President Barack Obama decides to narrow the gap between Beijing and Washington in order to jump-start the U.S. economy. Because of that the U.S. is in the post-recession recovery now, the U.S. needs the support of mainland China. On the other hand, mainland China has rapid economic growth and getting better, but not be hegemony yet, therefore mainland China through international trades to expand her political power, so also needs the support of the U.S.. All in all both sides are looking forward to cooperation through economic policy priorities, and create a situation in which both win. However, mainland China and the U.S. national interests are different, so there are a lot of international unstable variables. When mainland China gets the stimulation from the U.S., and its "sensitivity" and "vulnerability" are quite intense, because of that mainland China in order to maximize its payoff. But two sides both recognize that cooperation is important, and military force is a minor role, so if they don’t cooperate with each other, they would pay for their mistake. When they emphasis economic interdependence, they will move toward a non-zero-sum and the relations of cooperation. Sino-U.S. relations are sometimes competitive and sometimes cooperative from 2009 to 2010. The author pick out four issues about politics, economy, military affairs and environment, in order to analyze in depth of Sino-U.S. relations. The core of article is "sensitivity" and "vulnerability", through these indicators measurements illustrate the mainland China and the U.S. react upon each other, and also can expect the development of Sino-U.S. relations in future.
Everyone focuses on Sino-U.S. relations in the 21st century. After 2008 financial crisis, the economy of the United States has always been malaise, so the President Barack Obama decides to narrow the gap between Beijing and Washington in order to jump-start the U.S. economy. Because of that the U.S. is in the post-recession recovery now, the U.S. needs the support of mainland China. On the other hand, mainland China has rapid economic growth and getting better, but not be hegemony yet, therefore mainland China through international trades to expand her political power, so also needs the support of the U.S.. All in all both sides are looking forward to cooperation through economic policy priorities, and create a situation in which both win. However, mainland China and the U.S. national interests are different, so there are a lot of international unstable variables. When mainland China gets the stimulation from the U.S., and its "sensitivity" and "vulnerability" are quite intense, because of that mainland China in order to maximize its payoff. But two sides both recognize that cooperation is important, and military force is a minor role, so if they don’t cooperate with each other, they would pay for their mistake. When they emphasis economic interdependence, they will move toward a non-zero-sum and the relations of cooperation. Sino-U.S. relations are sometimes competitive and sometimes cooperative from 2009 to 2010. The author pick out four issues about politics, economy, military affairs and environment, in order to analyze in depth of Sino-U.S. relations. The core of article is "sensitivity" and "vulnerability", through these indicators measurements illustrate the mainland China and the U.S. react upon each other, and also can expect the development of Sino-U.S. relations in future.
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Keywords
中美關係, 歐巴馬, 互賴, 敏感性, 脆弱性, Sino-U.S. Relations, Barack Obama, Interdependence, Sensitivity, Vulnerability