氣溫對都市電力消費的影響-以台北市為例
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2018
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電力是都市運轉重要之能源類型，影響都市用電量之因子很多，但若從自然環境因素來看，氣溫是最常被探討的關鍵因素。隨著氣候暖化、都市熱島效應，國外有越來越多研究投入溫度與都市用電量之相關研究，但在台灣卻鮮少有相關之實證研究，形成都市環境地理學之一缺角。
本研究選擇台北市作為實證研究對象，使用台灣電力公司台北市區營業處共29間變電所2014-2016年的每小時用電量，以及同年度中央氣象局台北測站的大氣資料並將其轉換成逐時、日、週、月等資料。將時、日等不同時間尺度的氣溫與用電量按不同月份分兩組進行匹配，找出兩條回歸線殘差均方和最小的組別，即為最佳組合，並將該組兩條回歸線的交點溫度視為基礎溫度(base temperatures)，並比較台北市用電特性與外國都市的異同並將氣溫、體感溫度(apparent temperature)與用電量進行迴歸分析。
研究結果顯示：(1)不論氣溫高低，都市用電具備一定的基礎負荷；(2)臺北市並無明顯供暖度日HDD(heating degree-days) ，但冷卻度日CDD(cooling degree-days)明顯；(3)氣溫與用電量呈現非線性關係，低於基礎溫度時用電對氣溫變化不敏感，高於基礎溫度時用電隨氣溫上升而明顯上升；(4)在超過基礎溫度的狀況下，氣溫與體感溫度，對用電量的決定係數(R2)並無顯著差異；(5)在大於基礎溫度情況下，上班日冷卻度日與用電量關係的敏感度較假日高；(6)在大於基礎溫度情況下，午後與晚間冷卻度日對用電量的敏感度高於清晨。
Electricity is an important type of energy for urban operations. There are many factors affecting urban electricity consumption. However, temperature is the most frequently discussed key factor in terms of natural environment. With the warming of the climate and the urban heat island effect, there are more and more studies on temperature and urban electricity consumption in foreign countries; however, there is few empirical researches in Taiwan, which forms an absence of urban environmental geography. This study selects Taipei as an empirical research object and uses the hourly electricity consumption of 29 substations of Taipei Electric Power Company's Taipei office for the period from 2014 to 2016, and the atmospheric data of the Taipei Meteorological Bureau's Taipei station in the same period, and convert it into hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly data. The base temperature is objectively defined as the intersection of two regression lines that least-squared fit the monthly-dependent electricity consumption and temperature data. This study compares the similarities and differences between Taipei City's electricity consumption characteristics and foreign cities and analyzes the regression relations between apparent temperature, temperature, and power consumption. The results show that: (1)regardless of the temperature value, urban electricity has a certain base load; (2)there is no obvious heating degree-days(HDD) in Taipei City, but the cooling degree-days(CDD) are significant; (3)temperature and electricity consumption have a nonlinear relationship, and when the temperature is lower than the base temperature, the electricity is not sensitive to the temperature change. When the temperature is larger than the base temperature, the electricity rises obviously with the temperature rise; (4)when the temperature value is larger than the base temperature,temperature and apparent temperature have no significant difference in coefficient of determination (R2) of electricity consumption;(5)when the temperature value is larger than the base temperature, the sensitivity of the relationship between the degree of cooling degree on the working day and the electricity consumption is higher than that of the holiday; (6) when the temperature value is larger than the base temperature, the CDD in the afternoon and evening hours are more sensitive to the electricity consumption compared with that in early morning.
Electricity is an important type of energy for urban operations. There are many factors affecting urban electricity consumption. However, temperature is the most frequently discussed key factor in terms of natural environment. With the warming of the climate and the urban heat island effect, there are more and more studies on temperature and urban electricity consumption in foreign countries; however, there is few empirical researches in Taiwan, which forms an absence of urban environmental geography. This study selects Taipei as an empirical research object and uses the hourly electricity consumption of 29 substations of Taipei Electric Power Company's Taipei office for the period from 2014 to 2016, and the atmospheric data of the Taipei Meteorological Bureau's Taipei station in the same period, and convert it into hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly data. The base temperature is objectively defined as the intersection of two regression lines that least-squared fit the monthly-dependent electricity consumption and temperature data. This study compares the similarities and differences between Taipei City's electricity consumption characteristics and foreign cities and analyzes the regression relations between apparent temperature, temperature, and power consumption. The results show that: (1)regardless of the temperature value, urban electricity has a certain base load; (2)there is no obvious heating degree-days(HDD) in Taipei City, but the cooling degree-days(CDD) are significant; (3)temperature and electricity consumption have a nonlinear relationship, and when the temperature is lower than the base temperature, the electricity is not sensitive to the temperature change. When the temperature is larger than the base temperature, the electricity rises obviously with the temperature rise; (4)when the temperature value is larger than the base temperature,temperature and apparent temperature have no significant difference in coefficient of determination (R2) of electricity consumption;(5)when the temperature value is larger than the base temperature, the sensitivity of the relationship between the degree of cooling degree on the working day and the electricity consumption is higher than that of the holiday; (6) when the temperature value is larger than the base temperature, the CDD in the afternoon and evening hours are more sensitive to the electricity consumption compared with that in early morning.
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Keywords
迴歸分析, 冷卻度日, 體感溫度, 基礎溫度, Regression analysis, cooling degree-day, apparent temperature, base temperature