台北市都市發展與少子化所引起的學童變化趨勢之空間差異分析

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2017

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少子化是目前世界上不少已開發地區中出現的社會現象,台灣自民國80年代開始成為其中之一至今。少子化不但會減少未來年輕人口數量,更會減少社會勞動力以及影響人口高齡化,產生惡性循環。另一方面台北市都市核心地區在高度發展下的所產生的人口密度與土地利用會導致都市核心人口老化,而人口老化同樣會造成影響少子化的社經環境。同時交通網路在都市中成為增加民眾都市內可及性的腳色,在都市發展日漸飽和的環境下會加速人口流動的情況。 本研究利用台北市民國102年至104年的最小統計區6歲學童人口資料進行研究,在計算學童變化趨勢分析後了解台北市未來學童未來可能的變化趨勢分布,並以台北市各種交通網路如國道網路、快速道路、台北市捷運系統、台北市聯營公車網路與公辦重劃區等資料進行區位對比。在數據分析後發現台北市各地區上學童未來變化趨勢的分布並不均等,學童未來變化趨勢在台北市的分布上有明顯的差異,甚至會有地方反而異於少子化現象出現學童增加的趨勢。學童變化趨勢的分布不但與目前的學童分布產生差異,不少區域更出現學童分布熱點重疊未來學童減少趨勢的情況。在分布上可以看出都市核心出現學童減少趨勢,而學童增加趨勢的區域主要分布於都市核心外,不同地方與台北市各交通網路有某種關聯性,學童變化趨勢熱區在分布上與交通網路以及少數重劃區有一定的相關,另一方面未來學童減少趨勢的區域分布與台北市人口聚集分布遷移歷史相關,顯示區域上的發展有一定程度影響著該區域學童的未來變化趨勢。
At present, many developed countries began to appear sub-replacement fertility phenomenon. Sub-replacement fertility will not only reduce the number of young people in the future, but also reduce the social labor force and affect the aging of the population, resulting in a vicious circle. On the other hand, the population density and land use in the core areas of Taipei City will lead to the aging of the downtown population, and the aging of the population will also affect the social and economic environment that affects sub-replacement fertility. At the same time, the traffic network has become a role in increasing the accessibility of the public in the city and accelerating the flow of people in an increasingly saturated urban environment. In this study using the population data of the 6-year-old school children in the minimum statistical area of 2013-2015 in Taipei City. After analyzing the trends of schoolchildren, it is possible to understand the trend of future changes of school children in Taipei. And to analyze the various transportation networks in Taipei, such as highway, expressway, Taipei MRT system, Taipei city bus network and redevelopment zone for location comparison. It is found that the distribution trend of school children in different regions of Taipei is not uniform, and the future trend of school children has obvious difference in the distribution of Taipei City, and there is even a tendency to increase the trend of children in some area. The distribution of schoolchildren future trend is not only different from the current distribution of schoolchildren, some area of negative schoolchildren changing trend even overlapping the hotspot of the current distribution of schoolchildren. In the distribution can be seen the negative schoolchildren changing trend has distributed around the downtown, and the positive schoolchildren changing trend has distributed around the suburbs. The distribution of positive schoolchildren changing trend has a certain correlation between the traffic network with the traffic network and redevelopment zone. On the other hand, the distribution of positive schoolchildren changing trend is related to the migration history of population distribution in Taipei. The development of the region has a certain extent affecting the future trend of school children in the region.

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少子化, 大眾運輸, 重劃區, MAUP, Sub-replacement fertility, Mass transit, Redevelopment zone, MAUP

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