大專校院男子手球比賽技術之迴歸分析

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2003

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本研究目的是探討影響大專校院男子手球比賽勝負關鍵的攻守技術,及建立評估大專校院男子手球比賽勝負的迴歸公式。針對81學年至86學年大專盃手球賽,男子甲組及乙組的比賽資料,以得失分差為效標,應用多元迴歸的C(P)法和R平方法進行分析。另以汕頭大學舉辦的「2000年東南亞大學生手球邀請賽」男子組,及91學年度大專校院手球錦標賽男子乙組的比賽紀錄計算複核效度。從19個變項選出犯規(V1)、慢攻傳失(V2)、快攻傳失(V3)、慢攻守門封擋(V4)、七公尺守門封擋(V6)、普通球員封擋(V7)、外線射門(V8)及快攻(V12)射門8個變項,其R2為0.6280(F=55.93,P<.05),得到評估大專男子手球比賽勝負的迴歸公式: =5.76039-0.3416(V1)-0.69894(V2)-0.5666(V3)+0.7442(V4) +1.5003(V6)+0.5350(V7)-0.4910(V8)+0.5345(V12) 複核效度R2為0.5643,估計標準誤1.8203,外在效度僅減縮0.0637。因此,本研究結論為,所選出的大學男子手球比賽勝負關鍵的攻守技術模式是最佳組合,且具有良好的外在效度與評估品質。
The object of this study was to investigate the critical attack and defense skills that influenced the victory or defeat in intercollegiate men’s handball competitions, and to establish a regression formula to evaluate the victory or defeat in intercollegiate men’s handball competitions. In accordance to the Intercollegiate Handball Competitions of 1992 thru 1997, the difference of points gained and lost recorded from the men’s A and B groups, were used as criterion for the Mallows Cp and R-square regression analysis. Moreover, the cross validation was calculated from records of the men’s A and B group results at the “2000 South-East Asia Intercollegiate Handball Invitational Tournament” held at Shan-Tou University, and the “2002 Intercollegiate Handball Championship”. Fouls(V1), slow break fumbling(V2), fast break fumbling(V3), slow break block by the goal-keeper(V4), penalty throw blocked by the goal-keeper(V6), block by a court player(V7), field shooting(V8) and fast break shooting(V12) were chosen among 19 variables, obtaining an R-square of 0.6280(F=55.93, p<.05) and the following regression formula to evaluate victory or defeat in intercollegiate men’s handball competitions: =5.76039-0.3416(V1)-0.69894(V2)-0.5666(V3)+0.7442(V4) +1.5003(V6)+0.5350(V7)-0.4910(V8)+0.5345(V12) The validation obtained was R2=0.5643, with an estimated standard error of 1.8203, and an external validity merely reduced by 0.0637. Consequently, the conclusion of this study was that the critical attack and defense skills that were chosen were the optimum combination. Furthermore, they possessed a good external validity and evaluation quality.

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手球, 比賽技術, 迴歸分析, Handball, Competition Skill, Regression Analysis

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