候選人競選策略之研究―以第七屆立委選舉北市第二選區為例

Abstract

我國於2008 年第七屆立委選舉首度實行「單一選區兩票並立制」，在第七屆立委選舉結果出爐後，台北市的選情國民黨大獲全勝，囊括八個選區的區域立委席次，原本北市唯一綠營基本盤大於藍營的第二選區(士林、大同)，民進黨推派的候選人王世堅在最後關頭失守，由國民黨代表的周守訓勝出，王世堅為何敗選？而周守訓為何會在號稱綠營鐵票倉的大同區取得相對多數票？ 本文以北市第二選區周守訓與王世堅的競選策略為研究主軸，針對候選人宣佈參選後，競選策略之抉擇、執行做評估，研究發現兩黨候選人雖然皆採行共識型競選策略，極大化本身的票源，但周陣營重視「甄補式策略」導向，開發第二選區中間選民的票源，拉攏選民的策略發揮作用；而王陣營偏重「強化式策略」導向，極大化民進黨基本票的忠誠度，主推意識型態戰，固守深綠卻忽略中間選票及民生議題，對王世堅選情造成不利，因此，建議候選人在策略選擇上，著重開發新的票源、議題訴求應重視基層民生建設，考量政治局勢後能審慎研擬競選策略。After the result of the 7th Legislator Election came out, the KMT (Kuomintang) won total victories. Originally, the 2nd district (Shihlin and Datong) in Taipei City was a pan-green area.The DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) candidate Wang, Shin-Cheng has failed the election at the last minute, and the KMT candidate Chou Shou-Hsun won. Why did Wang,Shin-Cheng lose? Why did Chou Shou-Hsun win in the pan-green area?

In the study,it discusses Wang and Chou's campaign strategy. This paper talks about how the candidates evaluate themselves and the district, and how the candidates plan and execute their campaign strategy in this competitive environment. The analysis shows that they both use "consensual strategy" to get support from voters.However,Chou applies "recruitment strategy" in the election.The purpose is to get independent voters'votes.Wang applies"recruitment strategy" for pan green supporters'votes. Wang uses war of ideology to keep pan green supporters,but disregards independent voters and economic issues. This strategy causes Wang's electoral defeat.Therefore,in order to get more votes,the candidates have to plan and execute their campaign strategy. There are three advises for candidates: to develop and expand independent voters'votes significantly,issue-centered strategy needs to focus on people's livelihood,and to consider the political situation.