2015年台南市登革熱疫情分佈狀況及擴散因素分析

Abstract

自2015年6月底起至當年10月初為止，台南市發生近年來最嚴重的登革熱流行疫情：短短三個月間不斷快速地新增患病個案數、累積死亡人數更高達112人。為深入探討與分析2015年下半年登革熱疫情長時間、大範圍及高強度影響台南市民健康的狀況，本研究以台南市政府資料開放平台及內政部疾病管制署提供的人口統計資料、交通要道資訊與登革熱確診病例統計等開放資料，以地理資訊系統進行多種空間方法的分析，以釐清各項因素的顯著性。研究目標是能得出登革熱疫情嚴重的根本原因，在未來能提供台南市政府及市民作為公共衛生與安全之背景資訊，更有效率的防治登革熱疫情發生。 研究成果顯示：自8月疫情爆發後，北區始終是登革熱熱點。隨著時間及交通要道因子先向東北方的永康區、西南方的中西區及南區擴散；直至9月底受人口分布影響擴散至東區，屬於混合型擴散。其中左右疫情的因子包含主要交通要道—台17甲（金華路）、人口集中區以及雨水下水道系統。雨水下水道系統出露在地表的孔蓋為病媒蚊快速繁衍後代、傳播病毒的重要媒介，也是本次疫情最主要的擴散因素。During late June to early October in 2015, a major outbreak of dengue fever occurred in Tainan City. It was the most serious dengue fever epidemic in recent years. In merely three months, the cases of infection inclined drastically, and it had strike a total of 112 deaths. To analyze how the long time period, large extent and high intensity of dengue fever affected the health condition of Tainan civilian, this study conduct various spatial statistic analysis with GIS to determine the confidence of every factors using population statistics provided by the socioeconomic database groups in National Geographic Information System (NGIS) and Centers for Disease Control (CDC), shapefiles of major roads and the statistics of confirmed dengue fever records. The aim of this study is to figure out the cause if the serious dengue fever outbreak. The result can provide information about public hygiene and health for the city hall and the civilians, so that the precaution methods against dengue fever in the future will be more effective.

The result of the research shows that the hot spot of the dengue fever located in North Dist. since the epidemic outbreak started at middle August. In the first few weeks, epidemic spread to Yong Kong Dist. at the north east and Middle West Dist. and South Dist. at the south west as a cause of the factor, the arterial road. Then, epidemic was affected by population distribution and diffused to East Dist. in late September. It indicates a typical mixed diffusion mode for this case. The factors that affect the epidemic includes arterial road, Provincial Road 17 (Jinhua Rd.), high population density and sewage system. The drain covers of sewage are an important medium for mosquitos’ fast reproduction and the spread of virus, which is the main diffusion factor of thisepidemic.