台海兩岸和平整合模式之建構

Abstract

摘要： 兩岸關係如果要確保和平穩定避免戰爭，唯一的途徑就是透過和平整合。過去有許多學界與政界提出兩岸和平整合建議，所提出的兩岸整合方案，絕大部分屬於應然式的建言，而缺乏建立在實證資料的基礎，以致於兩岸關係理論化研究顯然不足，本文即以實徵研究為基礎，期待能建構兩岸和平整合模式，作為資料蒐集的分析架構，進而得以解釋兩岸整合現狀與預測兩岸和平未來發展。 首先本文論證，兩岸現階段經濟整合對兩岸和平的影響，有威脅也有機會，從威脅的角度而言，兩岸處於非正常化、非制度化的整合關係，使得台灣內部朝野掀起對中國政策的爭議。從機會角度而言，兩岸「經濟互賴」現狀是「兩岸共構全球商品供應鏈」，從經濟全球化的趨勢，將是台灣最佳的安全防衛機制，問題是台灣如何對「兩岸共構全球商品供應鏈」繼續保持優勢，本文以「兩岸共構全球商品供應鏈」作為觀察兩岸和平的重要變項。 從「新自由制度主義」的途徑，「國際建制」是影響國際和平安全互動重要的分析面向，本文以兩岸「制度整合」等制度性安排，作為觀察影響兩岸和平的第二項重要變項。從「建構主義」途徑，強調觀念認同與知識共享的重要性，認為國際體系的物質性結構只有在觀念性結構的框架中才能有意義，兩岸基本價值分享與互動對和平帶來重要影響，本文以「民主價值共享」作為第三項觀察兩岸和平的觀察變項。 結合「經濟互賴」、「制度整合」、「民主價值共享」等三者與兩岸和平關聯性，以及任一者與其他兩者之間的相互關係，建構出「兩岸三角和平」理論架構。

Abstract The only way to achieve perpetual peace between Taiwan and China ,which is how to be lead toward the peaceful integration patterns. In Taiwan academic community, many have already offered prescriptive integration patterns ; however, most of them build up theories or framework without following empirical materials. This dissertation is base on empirical materials for analysis framework, and hope to develop a general theory of peaceful integration patterns in order to explain and predict the cross-strait relation the given and future in term of peaceful development. The thesis demonstrates given situation there are opportunities and challenges under economic integration. From perspective of risks, because the given of cross-strait is under ad-normalization and non-institutionalization between Taiwan and China, which lead also to controversies on China policy in Taiwan’s domestic partisans. From perspective of opportunity, the given of economic interdependence between cross-Strait could be described as the term, “Constructing Global Commodity Supply Chain by two sides of Taiwan Strait ”, and it will be the best protective mechanism for Taiwan security. In addition, by the approach of the “Neo-liberal Institutionalism”, “International Institution” is the important analytical dimension to affect international security and promote cooperation each other, “Institution Integration” was designed as the second variable. In term of the approach of the “Constructivism”, it emphasizes the importance of value identification and shared knowledge; the international system is defined by material construction has been understood through their conceptive construction frame. Because democratic value shared and practices would be vital demansion for peace between Cross-Strait, the thesis designated “shared democratic value” as the third observing variable to examine the social facts across Taiwan Strait. Formulating hypotheses from relationships among “economic interdependence”, “institutional integration”, “shared democratic value” and the relationships connecting one of them with the other two can establish the theory of “Triangulating Peace across Taiwan Strait”, and contributed to the common theory of Peace model of Cross-Strait.