第七屆立法委員選舉選區劃分對台中市政黨生態影響之研究

Abstract

我國立委選舉原採「複數選區單記非讓渡投票制」，此種選制的優點在於可使小黨有一定程度之生存空間，且政黨得票率與席次率可達相當一致性，但亦因如此，少數極端或行事鮮明之候選人，僅藉一定的票源即可當選，對政黨政治之發展較為不利，為革除此種弊端，我國從第七屆立委選舉開始，正式採行「單一選區兩票制」，各縣市立委的選區劃分也將從現行複數選區改為單一選區，由於將直接衝擊各縣市選情，因此選區如何劃分備受關注。 選區劃分雖只是選舉制度的構成要項之一，但若選區劃分存有瑕疵，即使選舉過程再公開透明，亦無法達成公正公平之選舉結果。在我國以往的選舉中，由於選區多半和行政區相吻合，在執行上較無爭議，因此選區劃分之問題較不受重視，但隨著立委席次減半及國會選舉制度改革的呼聲下，選區劃分成為各政黨積極角力之關鍵問題。 本文主要從選區劃分的研究出發，探討我國的政黨生態是否會因選區劃分而受到影響，以近五年各政黨選舉得票作為選票重分配之基礎，並以台中市三個不同的選區劃分方案模擬第七屆立委選舉結果，從研究中得知我國的政黨結構將逐漸朝向兩黨制發展，小黨的生存空間將大受影響，民意代表的比例代表性將無法正確反映；在選區劃分方面，劃分方案的不同，會對各政黨的席次產生影響。而劃分之執行，亦未能符合公平公正之原則。新選制之實施，預計將使我國之政黨生態面臨前所未有之改變。The original legislator electoral system adopted in Taiwan is SNTV-MMD (Multi-Member-District, Single Non-Transferable Vote). The advantage of this system is that smaller parties can have a chance to win a certain number of seats, and the seats acquired by each party can reflect the votes it gets. However, the disadvantage of this system is that some controversial candidates can be elected as long as they get enough votes, even at the cost of the image and development of the party they represent. In order to avoid this failure, “Single-Member-District& Proportional Representation System” is scheduled to take effect in the 7th legislator election. The electoral districts will also be changed from MMD to SMD, which will make a direct impact on the election outcome. Therefore, it has become an issue worth studying. Although electoral districting is only one element of the whole electoral system, the competition among candidates cannot be fair if gerrymandering exists even if the procedure of election is deemed proper and fair. The issue ofelectoral districting was ignored in the past years because each electoral district matched each administrative area. But now, with the total seats in congress halved and the demand for reforming the electoral system, it has become a critical issue on every party’s agenda. This research is based on the total number of votes each party got in the past 5 years’ elections, to show whether the ecology of the political parties will be affected by the new electoral districting system. We use three different types of the proposed electoral districting systems to predict the results. According the simulated results, politics in Taiwan will tilt to a two- party system, with disproportionality and a different allocation of seats. Smaller parties will need to struggle much harder for room for survival. Redistricting will not be fairly implemented, according to the simulated results, and the new electoral system will make an unprecedented impact on the ecology of political parties in Taiwan.