國家層級能資源消耗與脫鉤效應分析

Abstract

脫鉤研究是探討國家能資源消耗與經濟發展間關係重要分析方法之一，本研究嘗試收集可及之國家層級資料，試圖比較所選定之十六個國家，各項能資源消耗之差異，並進而計算與分析各國能資源消耗與經濟發展之脫鉤效應。最後，並嘗試分析探討國際重要環境公約與各國之能資源與環境政策對其脫鉤效應表現可能之影響。 首先對於選定分析對象國家之各項能資源之消耗情形進行分析與計算，包含以下項目:天然氣年消耗量、煤炭年消耗量、石油年消耗量、生質能源年消耗量；溫室氣體排放、廢棄物之總產量；資源用量：金屬物質、用水量、肥料用量。本研究利用環境顧志耐曲線來呈現整體國家發展趨勢；同時選擇脫鉤指標中變化量綜合分析法，來判定脫鉤類型，共區分為以下六種脫鉤類型:擴張負脫鉤、弱脫鉤、強脫鉤、衰退脫鉤、弱負脫鉤、強負脫鉤）。數據分析期間為 2006-2015 十年間。 最後，將各項指標進行綜合之集群分析，可區分成三群國家，集群一的國家包含德國、美國、英國、日本、挪威與荷蘭，集群二的國家則有韓國、台灣、印度，集群三的國家為中國、菲律賓、巴西與泰國。綜合而言，已開發國家群的脫鉤表現，相較其他國家群有較穩定之脫鉤表現，在脫鉤類型中以「強脫鉤」為多數，也間接反映出這些國家相關資源管理政策之完善性與其對於國際公約規範之高度重視與積極參與。此外，透過本研究所進行之「溫室氣體排放」環境顧志耐曲線分析，人均年收入落在三萬美元之上之國家群，皆有走向脫鉤發展之趨勢。各國在於不同能資源項目所呈現之脫鉤表現各異，而某些模範型國家確實能在多種能資源項目上均有良好之脫鉤表現。本研究最後並針對現行脫鉤研究分析方法論進行檢討分析，以提供後續相關研究參考。

Decoupling research is one of the important methods to explore national energy& resource consumption and economic development. This study was aimed to collect the national level data of energy & resource consumption and to compare the differences among sixteen countries. In addition, decoupling performances of each country were calculated and analyzed, and then the influences by the relevant international environmental regulations and national energy & resource policies were also discussed. First, the annual consumption of various energy & resources in selected countrieswere calculated and analyzed, including: electricity, natural gas, coal, oil, biomass, greenhouse gas emissions, wastes, metal materials use, water consumption, and fertilizer use. The Environmental Kuznets Curve was used to present the overall national development trend and the Vehmas's decoupling Index was selected to determine the decoupling performance, and then six different decoupling types can be identified, including: expansive negative decoupling, weak decoupling, strong decoupling, recessive decoupling, weak negative decoupling, and strong negative decoupling. According to the results, three different national groups were found based on cluster analysis. The first group includes the following countries: Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Norway and the Netherlands. Korea, Taiwan and India are in the second group, while China, Philippines, Brazil and Thailand are in the third group. The results show that the well developed country group often has good decoupling performances and “strong decoupling” is its major type, and this seems to reflect the good implementation efficiency of international convention and national energy& resource policy. In addition, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the nations with per capita income of above 30,000 US dollars have higher tendency to decouple. Although different countries have different countries decoupling performances in each energy & resources item, some leading model countries can have good decoupling performances on various energy & resources items. Finally, the new ideas for decoupling research methodology were also discussed and proposed, and it may be useful for decoupling researches in the future.