以基於多準則決策之情境分析推衍消費者使用元宇宙銀行服務之意圖及銀行服務發展策略

Abstract

元宇宙為一後現實世界，透過多使用者環境，整合現實與虛擬環境之新型資訊科技。元宇宙技術於2021年由臉書推出後，大型銀行爭相投入資源，發展跨境支付、外匯交易、虛擬貨幣交易等元宇宙金融服務，並整合於現有服務系統，強化與消費者之互動，創造價值。銀行服務於金融體系中至為重要，唯學界與業界對於元宇宙銀行服務的研究甚少。為跨越研究缺口，本研究擬發展基於多準則決策之情境分析，推衍消費者使用元宇宙銀行服務之意圖，與銀行服務發展策略。為了探討元宇宙銀行技術之發展情境與影響消費者使用元宇宙銀行之關鍵要素與彼此間之影響關係，本研究導入整合環境分析架構（Political、Economic、Social、Technological、Environmental、Legal，PESTEL），發展未來十年元宇宙技術之發展情境，並導入整合科技接受模型（Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology，UTAUT）以及感知風險理論（Perceived Risk Theory）之分析架構，推衍各可能情境下，影響消費者使用元宇宙銀行服務意願之關鍵要素。本研究以PESTEL六個構面為驅動力量，由專家以修正式德菲法 （Modified Delphi Method）確認所導入構面與準則適合性，以基於決策實驗室分析法之網路流程法（DEMATEL-based Analytic Network Process，DANP）定義PESTEL構面與準則間的影響關係與權重，以折衷排序法（VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje，VIKOR）選擇最重要的情境軸，以最重要情境軸組成八種情境，並且以VIKOR選擇之。最後，以整合科技接受模型（Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology，UTAUT）以及感知風險理論（Perceived Risk Theory，PRT）之分析架構為基礎，以DANP法推衍各可能情境下，影響消費者使用元宇宙銀行服務意願之關鍵要素及對應之最適行銷策略。依據研究結果，在「經濟發展好、科技進步、且法律完善」之情境下，服務定位為影響消費者使用元宇宙銀行之主要因素，建構金融生態圈為銀行主要發展策略；在「經濟發展好、科技進步但法律不完善」之情境下，機會創造為影響消費者使用之主要因素，數位人才培育為銀行主要發展策略；在「經濟發展差、科技進步且法律完善」之情境下，機會創造為影響消費者使用元宇宙銀行之主要因素，而建構金融生態圈為銀行主要發展策略；最後，在「經濟發展好且法律完善，但科技進步不如預期」之情境下，最適化服務為影響消費者使用之主要因素，留住現有客戶為銀行主要發展策略。本研究架構可作為政府機關、研究機構與公司預測未來發展情境、與消費接受新型服務之用，研究結果亦可作為銀行訂定元宇宙服務策略之用。The Metaverse represents a post-reality world, a merger of physical and virtual realms through advanced information technology facilitated by multi-user environments. Post its introduction by Facebook in 2021, major banks eagerly invested resources to pioneer metaverse financial services. These services spanned cross-border payments, foreign exchange, and virtual currency transactions, integrating them into their existing systems. The goal was to enhance user engagement and generate value. While banking remains pivotal in the financial system, little research has been directed towards banking services within the metaverse. To bridge this research gap, this study aims to analyze consumer intentions towards utilizing metaverse banking services based on multi-criteria decision-making scenarios and strategize their banking service developments.This research primarily focuses on exploring the developmental scenarios of metaverse banking technology and the critical factors influencing consumers' adoption of these services, along with their interrelations. To achieve this goal, this study adopted an integrated environmental analysis framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal, PESTEL) to predict the potential trajectory of metaverse tech in the upcoming decade. Furthermore, this study incorporated the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) and Perceived Risk Theory (PST) frameworks to derive the crucial elements affecting the willingness of consumers to use metaverse banking services in various possible scenarios.This research was driven by the six dimensions of PESTEL. Experts used the Modified Delphi Method to validate the adopted criteria's suitability. The DEMATEL-based Analytic Network Process (DANP) was employed to define the interrelationships and weightage between the PESTEL dimensions and their criteria. Using the VIKOR method, this study pinpointed the most crucial scenario axis, constructing eight different scenarios based on it. Ultimately, the foundation of this study analysis rested on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology and Perceived Risk Theory, utilizing DANP to extrapolate the essential elementsimpacting consumers' intentions across these scenarios, aligning them with optimal marketing strategies. According to the findings, in a scenario marked by strong economic growth, technological advancements, and well-defined laws, the key determinant influencing consumers' adoption of metaverse banking was service positioning. Constructing a financial ecosystem emerged as the primary strategic initiative for banks. On the other hand, in an environment characterized by robust economic growth and technological progress but lacking comprehensive legislation, opportunity creation was identified as the dominant factor influencing usage. Here, the primary bank development strategy revolved around nurturing digital talent. For scenarios depicting poor economic growth yet technological progress and stringent laws, opportunity creation again stood out as the decisive factor, with building a financial ecosystem being the strategic focus. Lastly, in a scenario showcasing good economic growth and law framework but below-par technological advancements, service optimization influenced consumer behavior the most, with customer retention as the core bank development strategy. This research framework serves as a predictive tool for government agencies, research institutes, and companies foreseeing future development scenarios and consumer adoption of novel services. Moreover, the results offer a strategic blueprint for banks crafting their metaverse service roadmaps.