以專利分析探討3D列印之未來發展及產業趨勢

Abstract

3D列印是一個已經發展有一段時間的技術，在這個工業4.0快速發展的時代，卻被列為其中一個重要項目，不免讓人有些好奇過了這麼多年，這個技術的發展是否還是一樣蓬勃，是否還是一直有新的技術出現，因此本研究使用專利檢索來幫助預測趨勢，並以American Society for Testing and Materials International (ASTM) 訂定之七大技術──黏著劑噴印 (Binder Jetting) 、指向性能量沉積 (Directed Energy Deposition) 、材料擠出成型 (Material Extrusion) 、材料噴射成型 (Material Jetting) 、粉體熔融成型 (Powder Bed Fusion) 、疊層製造 (Sheet Lamination) 、光固化立體成型 (Vat Photopolymerization) 作為架構，搭上七大技術之子技術編定專利檢索碼，用專利檢索得到的檢索數量，依照累積專利筆數下去做羅吉斯成長曲線，判斷此技術現在到底處於什麼階段。依照數據分析的結果，3D列印多數子技術已到達成熟期，少數子技術都已達到衰退期，由此可見此技術雖然依舊有新的子技術出現，甚至是不屬於7大分類的技術，但這項技術已經是一項發展成熟的技術，之後不可避免的走向衰退，不過也代表此技術已經足夠成熟的運用在各個領域。3D printing is a technology that has been developed for some time, and in this era of rapid development of Industry 4.0, it remains an important field, arousing curiosity about its continued growth and the emergence of new technologies after all these years. Therefore, this research employs patent retrieval to help predict trends, using the seven major American Society for Testing and Materials International (ASTM) defined technologies: Binder Jetting, Directed Energy Deposition, Material Extrusion, Material Jetting, Powder Bed Fusion, Sheet Lamination, and Vat Photopolymerization, as the framework. The sub-technologies under these seven main techniques are assigned specific patent retrieval codes. The number of retrievals obtained from the patent search is then used to create a logistic growth curve, allowing us to determine the current stage of development of these technologies.Based on the data analysis, most of the sub-technologies within 3D printing have reached maturity, while a few others have entered the declining phase. This indicates that although new sub-technologies, even beyond the seven major categories, continue to emerge, 3D printing as a whole has become a mature technology and is inevitably moving towards decline. However, this also signifies that the technology has reached a level of maturity where it can be effectively applied in various fields.