兩岸經貿架構協議（ECFA）終止條款之爭議與影響析論
Abstract
台海之間，從充滿敵意的戰爭狀態，經過數十年，彼此的政治經濟結構歷經了大幅的調整，及至今日終能存異求同放下爭議坐上談判桌。馬英九總統上任後，兩岸刻意營造友善氛圍，並於2010年6月29日簽署「海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)」，是兩岸六十年來所簽訂最重要、影響最深遠的協議，標誌著兩岸關係進入制度化合作的新時期。
ECFA的簽署對台灣來說，具有藉由兩岸經濟合作，進一步與亞太地區乃至世界經濟接軌，強化台灣國家安全的意義。可是當初朝野政黨基於各自立場的考量將「終止條款」納入ECFA條文中，由於兩岸的特殊關係，使得終止條款的存在特別具有政治操作的意涵。
為了釐清終止條款的存在對ECFA乃至兩岸關係的影響，本文透過文獻收集與訪談方式，分析終止條款的相關爭議與影響，並整理各界對此議題的看法，獲得如下結論：
一、ECFA是兩岸各取所需，妥協出來的協議；
二、終止條款可被政治操作的工具性意義是相關爭議的核心；
三、兩岸政治互信基礎不在是引發終止條款啟動的原因，結果台海關係將因此絕裂，但現實政治上終止條款啟動的可能性很低；
四、現階段終止條款對台灣的政治影響不大；
五、大陸對台沒有統一時間表，兩岸的未來需要時間建立共同認可。
After decades of hostility, Taiwan and China have experienced substantial adjustments on both the political and economic structures. Today, both sidescould put aside their differences, walk to the negotiation table and try hard to reach their consensus. After President Ma Ying-jeou took office, both Taiwan and China deliberately cultivated friendly atmosphere so that made possible the signing of the “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)" between the Taiwan Straits on June 29, 2010. Since then the ECFA becomes the most important and far-reaching agreement that Taiwan and China have signed during the past six years. The agreement also marks the label that the cross-strait relation has entered a new era of institutionalized cooperation. What makes the signing of ECFA so crucial to Taiwan is that through this agreement which truly realizes the cross-straits economic cooperation, Taiwan now may participate in most of the Asia-Pacific region and the world economic activities. Furthermore, Taiwan government may strengthen its national security after the signing of ECFA. But inside Taiwan, both the ruling and opposition parties on their respective positions agree to include the "termination clause" into the provisions of ECFA. Because of the unique historical relationship between Taiwan and China, the termination clause of ECFA implies further political manipulations. In order to clarify the influence of the termination clause of ECFA on Taiwan and China relations, this study tries to analyze the relevant disputes and effects on the termination clause. This study also tries to organize the society views at Taiwan on the influence of the termination clause of ECFA through varies literature collections and interviews. The following conclusions are reached in this study： 1、ECFA is an agreement of compromise from which Taiwan and China may each acquire what it needs. 2、The core of the relative disputes on the termination clause is that this clause can become the tool of the political manipulation. 3、This study believes that the termination clause would be initiated when the mutual trust of Taiwan and China no longer exists. Hence, once the termination clause is initiated it would cause the collapse of the cross-strait relations. In any event, the probability of triggering this termination clause is highly unlikely.. 4、The termination clause on this stage causes barely minimum effect on Taiwan's current politics. 5、There is no uniform timetable for the mainland China to unify Taiwan, the future of both Taiwan and China still takes time to establish their mutual trust and recognition.
After decades of hostility, Taiwan and China have experienced substantial adjustments on both the political and economic structures. Today, both sidescould put aside their differences, walk to the negotiation table and try hard to reach their consensus. After President Ma Ying-jeou took office, both Taiwan and China deliberately cultivated friendly atmosphere so that made possible the signing of the “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)" between the Taiwan Straits on June 29, 2010. Since then the ECFA becomes the most important and far-reaching agreement that Taiwan and China have signed during the past six years. The agreement also marks the label that the cross-strait relation has entered a new era of institutionalized cooperation. What makes the signing of ECFA so crucial to Taiwan is that through this agreement which truly realizes the cross-straits economic cooperation, Taiwan now may participate in most of the Asia-Pacific region and the world economic activities. Furthermore, Taiwan government may strengthen its national security after the signing of ECFA. But inside Taiwan, both the ruling and opposition parties on their respective positions agree to include the "termination clause" into the provisions of ECFA. Because of the unique historical relationship between Taiwan and China, the termination clause of ECFA implies further political manipulations. In order to clarify the influence of the termination clause of ECFA on Taiwan and China relations, this study tries to analyze the relevant disputes and effects on the termination clause. This study also tries to organize the society views at Taiwan on the influence of the termination clause of ECFA through varies literature collections and interviews. The following conclusions are reached in this study： 1、ECFA is an agreement of compromise from which Taiwan and China may each acquire what it needs. 2、The core of the relative disputes on the termination clause is that this clause can become the tool of the political manipulation. 3、This study believes that the termination clause would be initiated when the mutual trust of Taiwan and China no longer exists. Hence, once the termination clause is initiated it would cause the collapse of the cross-strait relations. In any event, the probability of triggering this termination clause is highly unlikely.. 4、The termination clause on this stage causes barely minimum effect on Taiwan's current politics. 5、There is no uniform timetable for the mainland China to unify Taiwan, the future of both Taiwan and China still takes time to establish their mutual trust and recognition.
Description
Keywords
ECFA, 終止條款, 自由貿易協定, 區域經濟整合, ECFA, termination clause, free trade agreement, reginal economic integration