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A Case Study of Affection of Relationships between The 7th Legislator Electoral Districts and The Ecology of Political Parties in Taichung
Chu, Chao-Hsiang Ph.D.
ecology of political parties
Single-Member-District& Proportional Representation System
Single Non-Transferable Vote
The original legislator electoral system adopted in Taiwan is SNTV-MMD (Multi-Member-District, Single Non-Transferable Vote). The advantage of this system is that smaller parties can have a chance to win a certain number of seats, and the seats acquired by each party can reflect the votes it gets. However, the disadvantage of this system is that some controversial candidates can be elected as long as they get enough votes, even at the cost of the image and development of the party they represent. In order to avoid this failure, “Single-Member-District& Proportional Representation System” is scheduled to take effect in the 7th legislator election. The electoral districts will also be changed from MMD to SMD, which will make a direct impact on the election outcome. Therefore, it has become an issue worth studying. Although electoral districting is only one element of the whole electoral system, the competition among candidates cannot be fair if gerrymandering exists even if the procedure of election is deemed proper and fair. The issue ofelectoral districting was ignored in the past years because each electoral district matched each administrative area. But now, with the total seats in congress halved and the demand for reforming the electoral system, it has become a critical issue on every party’s agenda. This research is based on the total number of votes each party got in the past 5 years’ elections, to show whether the ecology of the political parties will be affected by the new electoral districting system. We use three different types of the proposed electoral districting systems to predict the results. According the simulated results, politics in Taiwan will tilt to a two- party system, with disproportionality and a different allocation of seats. Smaller parties will need to struggle much harder for room for survival. Redistricting will not be fairly implemented, according to the simulated results, and the new electoral system will make an unprecedented impact on the ecology of political parties in Taiwan.
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