日本人口減少之問題：高齡化社會現狀分析與對策
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2016
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
本論文所探討的問題關乎到一個國家發展的未來，而且對先進國家而言，是無法避而不談的問題。每個國家少子高齡化的情況雖不太一樣，但各國皆關注著日本的少子高齡化之解決方案。筆者認為如果日本政府找到很好的解決方法的話，存在著跟日本一樣的問題世界上許多國家一定作為參考日本的方法。比預想的日本少子高齡化得快，換句話說，日本將面對沒有先例且困難的問題。
日本政府最近才注意到這個問題是個非常嚴重的問題，第二次安倍內閣裡增設地方創生大臣的職位。可看出安倍首相把地方再生置為最重要政策的位置，然後向國民宣告［活化地方是解決問題最大的關鍵］。自民黨元幹事長石破茂議員被任命創生大臣，由人事安排上可以看出安倍首相當重視少子高齡化的問題，但目前尚不能採取恰當且有效的措施。鑒於此，少子高齡化不僅在日本，對世界各國來說，難題是堆積如山。換句話說，如果日本可以將解決少子高齡化之有效方針向世界建議，日本就可在各國立先驅之功。
在日本少子高齡化的三大原因是［出生率下降］、［壽命增長］、［少量移民政策］，日本政府原則上不接收從外國來的移民。在日本1950年代的平均出生率是2.58％，1960年代平均出生率下降到2.0％，1970年代更下降到1.98％，1960年以後日本的出生率低於代替率2.1％。出生率低於代替率的話，無法維持現在的人口，這意味著人口開始減少。於2010年日本的總人口約有1億2,650萬人，高齡者人口約有3,860萬人，根據日本政府估計於2050年日本的總人口約有1億850萬人，高齡者人口約有4,500萬人。
根據這些事實，為了提高出生率，首先追溯造成少子高齡化之原因，然後探討有關再生都市的方法及創造，且幼童和高齡者、男性和女性的人口保持平衡之結構。本研究為分析少子高齡化的主要背景與原因，於第三章第一節研究出生率低下的原因，該章第二節研究平均壽命增長的背景原因，該章第三節研究日本政府的移民政策，日本政府對移民採取消極的態度之原因，該第四節研究人口集中在東京的功與罪。第四章研究社會保障制度，因年金制度與醫療保險制度最近引起了日本國民的關心，特別是年金制度與醫療保險制度。再者，第六章將探討地方再生的具體方案對出生率改善之情形。當中特別針對東京一極集中之問題，提出具體改善方案。
事實上，少子高齡化之課題別說日本，各國目前尚未找到明確的解決方案。因此，本研究在有限的時間內，完成該項任務可說是不太容易。但為了接近理想的未來，將全力以赴研究人口減少、少子高齡化的問題。
The theme of this thesis is on the extremely important problems which confront Japan at present and are likely to influence greatly the destiny of the nation. And on the other hand, some leading developed countries cannot overlook or stay indifferent to the same problems, because they are aware that they are also destined to be distressed by the problems, namely “Social aging and Population decline” next to Japan, though the contents of their problems are in some respects different from those of Japan. Therefore, many countries are watching how Japan will solve the difficulties. In other words, Japan is the first country that is being urged to solve the unprecedented difficult problems. Recently, the Japanese government realized at last the importance of this problem, and in the second Abe Cabinet they prepared a post for the local creation minister. In addition, the government decided that the resurrection of local communities should be one of the cabinet’s most important policies, and that making the local communities come to life again is the very key to the “social aging and population decline” problem. In order to prove this, the government appointed Ishiba Sigeru, the former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, as the minister in charge, and have shown a positive attitude toward this policy. But it is to be regretted that the minister has not yet taken any effective countermeasures against this problem. Judging from such situations, the writer believes this theme has great possibilities not only for Japan but also for many countries in the world to show some right directions of the effective solutions for this problem, but needless to say, the countries concerned must conquer so many difficulties. The big waves of the social aging and population decline problem in Japan mainly arises from a marked decline in birthrates, extension of life span, and extremely strict admission of immigrants. In 1950’s the average birthrate was 2.58, and in 1960’s and in 1970’s the birthrate went down to 2.0 and 1.98 respectively, with the result that the birthrates fell short of the minimum birthrate 2.1 which is essential to maintain the present population level. And in 2010, out of the total population of 126,500,000, the number of the aged (of 60 years and over) amounted to 38,600,000, and furthermore it is expected that in 2050 out of the 108,500,000 population, the aged will amount to 45,000,000. Taking the various present situations mentioned above into consideration, in order to raise the birthrate the writer made up his mind to analyze the processes and the causes of social aging and to put emphasis on searching for some effective countermeasures by which to recover the well-balanced local communities where everyone is lively everywhere, both the balance between the young and the old and the balance between males and females are ideally maintained. And furthermore, so as to analyze the chief backgrounds and causes of social aging, in the first paragraph of the third chapter, the causes of the marked decline in birthrate principally examined, in the second paragraph the backgrounds of the prolongation of averagelife span, in the third paragraph the reasons why Japan has been negative toward admission of immigrants, and in the fourth the merits and demerits of “Concentration of the population in Tokyo only” were analyzed. And also in the fourth chapter, out of many social security system problems, the writer took up only the reforms of annuity plans and medical insurance systems concisely, about which recently hot discussions are heard here and there among the Japanese people. Moreover, in the first paragraph of the sixth chapter, some concrete measures were suggested in order to realize the recovery of local communities, which is looked upon as one of the most effective methods for improving birthrates. Especially, there the writer showed some epoch-making methods to dissolve the “Concentration of people in Tokyo only” problem. To tell the truth, the theme of this thesis refers to too far and wide fields, and without mentioning the Japanese government, even the world-famous experts have not yet shown any decisive clues to these difficult problems, much less can do the inexpert writer in such a short time. Anyway, the writer has done his best to approach the very ideal Japan of the future.
The theme of this thesis is on the extremely important problems which confront Japan at present and are likely to influence greatly the destiny of the nation. And on the other hand, some leading developed countries cannot overlook or stay indifferent to the same problems, because they are aware that they are also destined to be distressed by the problems, namely “Social aging and Population decline” next to Japan, though the contents of their problems are in some respects different from those of Japan. Therefore, many countries are watching how Japan will solve the difficulties. In other words, Japan is the first country that is being urged to solve the unprecedented difficult problems. Recently, the Japanese government realized at last the importance of this problem, and in the second Abe Cabinet they prepared a post for the local creation minister. In addition, the government decided that the resurrection of local communities should be one of the cabinet’s most important policies, and that making the local communities come to life again is the very key to the “social aging and population decline” problem. In order to prove this, the government appointed Ishiba Sigeru, the former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, as the minister in charge, and have shown a positive attitude toward this policy. But it is to be regretted that the minister has not yet taken any effective countermeasures against this problem. Judging from such situations, the writer believes this theme has great possibilities not only for Japan but also for many countries in the world to show some right directions of the effective solutions for this problem, but needless to say, the countries concerned must conquer so many difficulties. The big waves of the social aging and population decline problem in Japan mainly arises from a marked decline in birthrates, extension of life span, and extremely strict admission of immigrants. In 1950’s the average birthrate was 2.58, and in 1960’s and in 1970’s the birthrate went down to 2.0 and 1.98 respectively, with the result that the birthrates fell short of the minimum birthrate 2.1 which is essential to maintain the present population level. And in 2010, out of the total population of 126,500,000, the number of the aged (of 60 years and over) amounted to 38,600,000, and furthermore it is expected that in 2050 out of the 108,500,000 population, the aged will amount to 45,000,000. Taking the various present situations mentioned above into consideration, in order to raise the birthrate the writer made up his mind to analyze the processes and the causes of social aging and to put emphasis on searching for some effective countermeasures by which to recover the well-balanced local communities where everyone is lively everywhere, both the balance between the young and the old and the balance between males and females are ideally maintained. And furthermore, so as to analyze the chief backgrounds and causes of social aging, in the first paragraph of the third chapter, the causes of the marked decline in birthrate principally examined, in the second paragraph the backgrounds of the prolongation of averagelife span, in the third paragraph the reasons why Japan has been negative toward admission of immigrants, and in the fourth the merits and demerits of “Concentration of the population in Tokyo only” were analyzed. And also in the fourth chapter, out of many social security system problems, the writer took up only the reforms of annuity plans and medical insurance systems concisely, about which recently hot discussions are heard here and there among the Japanese people. Moreover, in the first paragraph of the sixth chapter, some concrete measures were suggested in order to realize the recovery of local communities, which is looked upon as one of the most effective methods for improving birthrates. Especially, there the writer showed some epoch-making methods to dissolve the “Concentration of people in Tokyo only” problem. To tell the truth, the theme of this thesis refers to too far and wide fields, and without mentioning the Japanese government, even the world-famous experts have not yet shown any decisive clues to these difficult problems, much less can do the inexpert writer in such a short time. Anyway, the writer has done his best to approach the very ideal Japan of the future.
Description
Keywords
少子化, 少子高齡化, 平均壽命, 合計特殊出生率, 地方再生, 年金制度, 東京一極集中, 社會保障制度, 移民政策, 醫療保險制度, annuity plan, concentration of people in Tokyo, immigration policy, low birth rate, medical insurance system, population ageing, prolongation of life span, renewal of local community, social security system, total fertility rate