選舉地理如何影響臺灣縣市長候選人的當選機率
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Date
2012-06-01
Authors
徐永明
林昌平
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Publisher
人文社會科學研究中心
Abstract
本文嘗試以選舉結果的空間分布與政治版圖的比較出發，探討與深化「地區性」因素對於個別候選人當選機率的影響。進一步針對「地區性」因素的性質，將之區分為三項不同的方向：⑴強調該候選人所在地區本身的獨特性、⑵強調候選人所在地區之間的相互作用，以及⑶強調「政治」特質上的相互作用會較「地理」特質上的相互作用更為有意義。嘗試提出一項整合模型，並使用臺灣1989–2009 年六屆縣市長的候選人層次選舉資料進行分析。期望透過不同「地區性」因素分析的檢視，觀察各項「地區性」因素對縣市長當選的影響性，並同時探討地方層次的選舉，全國性層次因素是否會對選舉結果造成影響，對未來選舉研究形成全新的視野。 本文認為影響候選人當選機率的原因，並不完全在於個人的特質與政治條件，這裡引入地區性因素，說明地區本身的獨特性（significant differences），仍受到候選人的黨籍與空間關係的相互作用（interaction）所影響。透過政治版圖整合模型（空間迴歸）的回饋效果，估計結果顯示縣市長當選因素的影響效果應較為正確，因為其包含了直接效果與間接效果的部分。此外，全國性層次因素（所屬政黨與中央執政黨相同）會對該項期中選舉結果造成負向影響，可看出中央執政黨的表現會影響民眾對於地方縣市長候選人的評價，地方執政黨的執政則有助於該屆同黨縣市長候選人的競選，本文雖然僅處理1989–2009的選舉資料，但由2010 年底舉行的臺灣五都大選結果來看，仍舊可以觀察到此現象。
This paper aims to compare the differences between political geography analysis and political blocs analysis. We re-examine the effect of region by three definitions: (1) the significant differences of regions, (2) the neighborhood interaction of regions, (3) the interaction of region in social networks. The empirical result of Taiwan’s county election data during 1989–2009 with the spatial probit model shows that the interaction of region in social network is more important than the neighborhood interaction of region. The most important attribute of this paper is that we re-define the meaning of the effect of region in county election. The conclusion shows that the interaction of region must be considered in election analysis. However, the interaction in social network is more important than the neighborhood interaction. Although this article only deals with the election data of 1989–2009, but by the end of 2010 5 municipalities TAIWAN of view, this phenomenon can still be observed.
This paper aims to compare the differences between political geography analysis and political blocs analysis. We re-examine the effect of region by three definitions: (1) the significant differences of regions, (2) the neighborhood interaction of regions, (3) the interaction of region in social networks. The empirical result of Taiwan’s county election data during 1989–2009 with the spatial probit model shows that the interaction of region in social network is more important than the neighborhood interaction of region. The most important attribute of this paper is that we re-define the meaning of the effect of region in county election. The conclusion shows that the interaction of region must be considered in election analysis. However, the interaction in social network is more important than the neighborhood interaction. Although this article only deals with the election data of 1989–2009, but by the end of 2010 5 municipalities TAIWAN of view, this phenomenon can still be observed.