威權與民粹關係之遞嬗：柬埔寨政治變遷之研究(1970-2017)
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2018
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本研究旨在探索柬埔寨威權體制與民粹主義關係之變遷，時間序列自1970年龍諾政權建立，到2017年最大在野黨瀕臨解散邊緣為止。本文透過歷史研究途徑重新探索、整理威權體制與民粹主義源起、轉變與當代發展之軌跡。
柬埔寨之威權體制肇於越南戰爭，龍諾政權、紅色高棉與橫山林政權皆透過暴力來達成更替，讓仰賴武力穩定的模式深深扎根在柬國政治運作。威權體制在1992年聯合國介入下暫時遭瓦解，但1997年後洪森長期主宰柬國，在面對西方壓力下競爭性威權體制成為新格局，直到2014年人民黨政權著手一系列壓制策略，引起民主倒退與專制復辟之疑慮。
民粹主義於龍諾政權高壓統治時期迅速發展，一種推崇農民、反菁英統治、反體制合法性之思潮在共產黨游擊隊革命下席捲柬埔寨，但該思潮於紅色高棉治下被完全壓制。聯合國佔領後，魅力型領袖沈良西以民族情緒為核心的民粹主義開始在選舉中展露頭角，逐步威脅人民黨，2013年大選過後，長達一年的反政府示威浪潮讓民粹運動蓬勃發展。
本研究認為，民粹運動與民主化訴求連袂出現在街頭已對威權體制穩定產生劇烈衝擊，這直接導致人民黨逐步剪除西式民主原則，在2017年修改《政黨法》後尤為明顯，民粹主義與威權體制已出現對抗之格局。
This study investigated the evolution of the relationship between authoritarianism and populism in Cambodia from the establishment of the Lon Nol regime in 1970 to 2017 when the main opposition party was on the verge of dissolution. Based on a historical approach, this study attempted to explore the origin, change, and contemporary development of authoritarianism and populism in Cambodia. The authoritarian regime in Cambodia originated from social chaos caused by the Vietnam War. The Lon Nol regime, the Khmer Rouge, and the Heng Samrin regime were all established through use of violence. This armed forces-dependent stability model is deeply rooted in the political operations in Cambodia. Despite the United Nation’s interference in 1992 which led to a temporary collapse of the authoritarian regime, Hun Sen created a competitive authoritarian regime after he took office in 1997. In 2014, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) planned a series of suppression strategies, resulting in a rise of public concern over democracy in retreat. Populism grew rapidly during the high-handed ruling period of Lon Nol. A wave of peasant-favoring and anti-establishment thought swept through Cambodia, but it was completely suppressed during the Khmer Rouge period. After the United Nation took over the administration of Cambodia, the charismatic leader Sam Rainsy gained popularity in elections by advocating a nationalist form of populism. Following the 2013 election, populism began to flourish across the nation. This study argued that the concurrent emergence of populist movements and calls for democratization has seriously undermined the stability of the authoritarian regime in Cambodia. This has directly influenced the ruling CPP to progressively withdraw use of western democratic principles in its administration. Especially since the 2017 amendment to the Law on Political Parties, there has been a new political situation where populism is in opposition to the authoritarian regime.
This study investigated the evolution of the relationship between authoritarianism and populism in Cambodia from the establishment of the Lon Nol regime in 1970 to 2017 when the main opposition party was on the verge of dissolution. Based on a historical approach, this study attempted to explore the origin, change, and contemporary development of authoritarianism and populism in Cambodia. The authoritarian regime in Cambodia originated from social chaos caused by the Vietnam War. The Lon Nol regime, the Khmer Rouge, and the Heng Samrin regime were all established through use of violence. This armed forces-dependent stability model is deeply rooted in the political operations in Cambodia. Despite the United Nation’s interference in 1992 which led to a temporary collapse of the authoritarian regime, Hun Sen created a competitive authoritarian regime after he took office in 1997. In 2014, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) planned a series of suppression strategies, resulting in a rise of public concern over democracy in retreat. Populism grew rapidly during the high-handed ruling period of Lon Nol. A wave of peasant-favoring and anti-establishment thought swept through Cambodia, but it was completely suppressed during the Khmer Rouge period. After the United Nation took over the administration of Cambodia, the charismatic leader Sam Rainsy gained popularity in elections by advocating a nationalist form of populism. Following the 2013 election, populism began to flourish across the nation. This study argued that the concurrent emergence of populist movements and calls for democratization has seriously undermined the stability of the authoritarian regime in Cambodia. This has directly influenced the ruling CPP to progressively withdraw use of western democratic principles in its administration. Especially since the 2017 amendment to the Law on Political Parties, there has been a new political situation where populism is in opposition to the authoritarian regime.
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民粹主義, 威權體制, 柬埔寨政治變遷, 競爭性威權體制, populism, authoritarian regime, political change in Cambodia, competitive authoritarian regime