兩類型聖嬰對西北太平洋氣旋活動影響之模擬
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2014
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Abstract
許多研究中發現在熱帶太平洋上，有兩種不同類型的聖嬰-南方振盪（El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO）事件，並且在近年來吸引了不少相關主題的研究和熱烈的討論。在這些研究當中，也重新的審視了聖嬰-南方振盪所造成的影響，探討東太平洋聖嬰（EP El Niño）及中太平洋聖嬰（CP El Niño）對於全球氣候影響的差異。而在我們分析觀測資料的結果中同樣發現，在兩類聖嬰事件中，不同的海表面異常增溫位置，會造成大尺度環境有不同的反應，而其不同距平的分布差異，會進而影響西北太平洋熱帶氣旋活動頻率的距平分布。
本篇研究的目標為根據在近幾十年有限觀測資料下定義出的事件中，檢驗模式重現在兩類El Niño下環境場以及熱帶氣旋活動的能力。研究中以觀測及合成之典型EP El Niño、CP El Niño事件和氣候平均之海表面溫度，作為驅動馬克斯-普朗克研究室發展的全球模式（Max Plank Institute global climate model, ECHAM5）之邊界條件，並且同時與ECHAM5 AMIP-type長期模擬結果下的合成EP El Niño和CP El Niño 事件做比較。從西北太平洋熱帶氣旋活動模擬結果的分析中，我們發現CP El Niño事件下，有較好的模擬表現，而在EP El Niño事件的模擬下，則是在西北太平洋西北象限會產生偏差。此外，從模擬的結果中也可以發現，模式大致上可以掌握住在兩類型聖嬰現象下，主要的大尺度環流場距平特徵。
Recently the phenomenon about the existence of two different types of El Niño occurred in tropical Pacific have attracted many studies on the topics and intensive debates. Following these works, whether there are also distinct impacts to global climate from the Eastern-Pacific （EP） and Central-Pacific （CP） El Niño had drawn lots of studies to revisit the ENSO influences. In this study, we analyze the observed events from 59 years（1951-2009）and investigate the different tropical cyclone （TC） frequency and large-scale circulation features between the two types of El Niño in the Western North Pacific. Our study aims at the examination on the model capability in reproducing the findings from limited observed events in the past few decades. We use the composites of SST distribution and evolution under the typical EP El Niño and CP El Niño as well as the normal condition for the boundary conditions to drive the Max Plank Institute global climate model （ECHAM5） in this study. And the results are also compared with composite of EP El Niño and CP El Niño events sampled from the century long AMIP-type simulation from ECHAM5.
Recently the phenomenon about the existence of two different types of El Niño occurred in tropical Pacific have attracted many studies on the topics and intensive debates. Following these works, whether there are also distinct impacts to global climate from the Eastern-Pacific （EP） and Central-Pacific （CP） El Niño had drawn lots of studies to revisit the ENSO influences. In this study, we analyze the observed events from 59 years（1951-2009）and investigate the different tropical cyclone （TC） frequency and large-scale circulation features between the two types of El Niño in the Western North Pacific. Our study aims at the examination on the model capability in reproducing the findings from limited observed events in the past few decades. We use the composites of SST distribution and evolution under the typical EP El Niño and CP El Niño as well as the normal condition for the boundary conditions to drive the Max Plank Institute global climate model （ECHAM5） in this study. And the results are also compared with composite of EP El Niño and CP El Niño events sampled from the century long AMIP-type simulation from ECHAM5.
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中太平洋聖嬰, 東太平洋聖嬰, 熱帶氣旋, 西北太平洋, CP El Niño, EP El Niño, Tropical Cyclone, Northwest Pacific