國立臺灣師範大學管理研究所陳慧玲2016-06-032016-06-032009/08-20http://grbsearch.stpi.narl.org.tw/GRB_Search/grb/show_doc.jsp?id=1759467http://rportal.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/handle/20.500.12235/78956中國證券分析師盈餘預測與股票推薦雖已受到機構投資人與個別投資人重視，然國 內外探討中國分析師盈餘預測及股票推薦行為文獻為數仍少。目前國內外文獻針對中國 分析師行為研究，主要探討的議題包括：中國分析師對會計資訊需求及其解讀能力、中 國分析師盈餘預測及股票推薦是否準確或偏誤、中國分析師修正股票推薦評等對市場影 響等。雖然中國財經媒體及文獻均指出，中國證券分析師因所屬證券商之不同業務可能 產生利益衝突，進而影響其盈餘預測之準確性，然既有文獻僅侷限理論探討，或提出管 制機構應採取之防範措施，而缺乏實證研究。此外，隨著中國經濟穩定成長及股市蓬勃 發展與逐步開放，國際投資者紛紛關注中國資本市場，這些外國機構投資人大部分根據 外國券商研究部門分析師所提供研究報告，進行其投資決策。然而目前仍無文獻探討當 中國分析師與外國券商分析師追蹤同一家中國上市公司時，影響中國與外國分析師盈餘 預測正確性因素為何。 為彌補既有文獻之缺漏，本研究計畫擬就中國分析師盈餘預測行為，進行兩年期之 研究，俾對中國分析師相關重要之研究議題，從事連貫研究。有關各年度相關研究主題 及方向，茲分別說明如下： 97 年度研究主題及方向:利益衝突對中國分析師盈餘預測行為之影響 1. 擬探討承銷業務對中國分析師盈餘預測行為之影響。 (1) 本研究擬檢視承銷前，承銷商分析師與非承銷商分析師對所有研究公司之盈餘預 測準確性及盈餘預測樂觀偏誤程度是否有顯著差異。 (2) 本研究擬檢視承銷時，整體股市報酬率及承銷商餘額包銷比率對承銷商分析師盈 餘預測樂觀偏誤之影響。 2. 擬探討經紀業務對中國分析師盈餘預測行為之影響。 (1) 本研究擬檢視當機構投資人調降投資組合中某家公司持股比重時，對經紀商分 析師盈餘預測行為之影響。 (2) 本研究擬檢視當機構投資人與分析師所屬證券公司為關係企業，其機構投資人 調降投資組合中某家公司持股比重時，對經紀商分析師盈餘預測行為影響。 3. 擬檢視當分析師發佈樂觀偏誤盈餘預測時，個別投資人與機構投資人洞悉及調整盈 餘預測偏誤能力是否有顯著差異。 98 年度研究主題及方向:中國分析師與外國分析師盈餘預測準確性之影響因素 1. 擬探討中國上市公司採用不同盈餘管理方法，對中國與外國分析師盈餘預測準確性 之影響。 2. 擬探討財務報表易讀性對中國與外國分析師盈餘預測準確性之影響。 3. 擬探討中國與外國分析師盈餘預測修正之資訊內涵。Publication of earnings forecasts and recommendations issued by sell-side analysts has been recognized popular in China since 2001. In absence of management forecasts, analysts’ forecasts are the primary source of future-oriented information for investors’investment decisions. Although analysts play an important role in China, only a few studies examined analysts’behavior. Some studies examined the information an analyst uses. Researchers used surveys to investigate analysts what kind of information they used and how they processed information. Some studies examined the characteristics of distribution of individual analyst earnings. Anecdotal evidence supports the notion that analysts in China may issue optimistic forecasts when they faced conflicts of interest. However, no studies investigated the effects of analysts’incentives on the properties of their earnings forecasts. Furthermore, foreign investors became more interest in China’s stock market. Most of foreign investors relied on the reports provided by foreign analysts working for foreign brokerage. The relative forecast accuracy between local analysts in China and foreign analysts became an important issue. However, no studies explore under what circumstances the local analysts in China have forecast accuracy advantage. To fill the gap, it is worth to investigate the analyst forecast behavior in China. In the first year project, this study will examine whether analysts may strategically add optimistic bias to their forecasts at different situations. Despite numerous research studies having consistently documented that analysts tend to provide optimistic earnings due to conflicts of interest, some studies confirmed the link between reputation and forecast accuracy. These studies identified that forecast accuracy is an important variable affecting analysts’ careers. In China, the anecdotal supported the notion that the forecast accuracy is an important factor not only affecting analysts’careers and compensation but also influencing institutional investors’selection of Best analysts in China. Therefore, analysts in China may have incentives to improve their forecast accuracy. Furthermore, this study will explore how individual and institutional investors account for the distortions when security analysts tend to issue optimistic earnings forecasts. In the second year project, this study will examine whether the relative performance of local analysts in China and foreign analysts are affected by firms using different earnings management devices. The minimum ROE requirement for initial public offerings or rights offering in China leads to rampant earnings management among Chinese listed companies. Some Chinese firms issue A and B shares or list their shares internationally. Listing internationally may signal a commitment to disseminate information broadly and equitable, perhaps neutralizing local earnings forecast advantages. Thus, this study will investigate whether local analyst forecast accuracy advantages can extend to a sample of firms issuing B shares or listing their shares internationally. Finally, this project will test if local analysts or foreign analysts bring new and valuable information to the market by analyzing the stock price impact of forecast revisions.盈餘預測準確性樂觀盈餘偏誤利益衝突個別及機構投資人盈餘管理方_x000d_ 法外國分析師預測修正資訊內涵Forecast accuracyOptimistic forecast biasConflicts of interestIndividual and_x000d_ institutional investorsEarnings management devicesForeign analysts_x000d_ Information content of forecast revisions