張鈿富張曉琪Dian-Fu Chang, Angel Chang2020-09-032020-09-032020-06-??http://rportal.lib.ntnu.edu.tw:80/handle/20.500.12235/109731透過政策與實務的檢視，本研究目的在探討邁向未來的臺灣師資培育。由於出生率下降與教師的退休，師資供需的平衡已成為國民小學教育主要的問題。根據師資的供需模式，本研究選定國民小學階段作為案例探討此一問題。居於供需平衡的概念，本研究以設計的模式來呈現策略選擇的過程。供給面包括師資培育機構的就學人數即國民小學師資培育機構的容納量。需求面包括國民小學的容納量，用以反映此一系統內教師需求的減少或增加。自我迴歸平均移動統整模式與轉換模式用於建立預測國小師資及師資培育機構未來的容納量。研究結果顯示，師資培育機構需要考量少子化而重新調整，然而，國小教育規模的縮小師資培育機構未來仍受困於師資的過度供給。本研究建議根據預測的數值來調整生師比，此為政策干預的一個選項，可以提供國小教育階段師資供需更合理的平衡邏輯。本研究建議的模式可提供一個模擬範例，以探討未來師資供需複雜的問題。This study aims to explore teacher preparation education over the next decade in Taiwan byreviewing previous policy and praxis. Due to the declining birth rate and teacher retirement,balancing teacher supply and demand has become a crucial issue in elementary education. Based onteacher supply and demand models, we selected elementary education as a case example to tacklethis issue. Grounded in the notion of balancing supply-demand, this study demonstrates the processof strategy selection in the designed models. The supply side includes enrollment in teacher trainingprograms in terms of capacity of teacher preparations in elementary schools. The demand sideincludes elementary schools’ capacity, which can reflect if the demand for teachers is decreasing orincreasing. Autoregressive integrated moving average and transfer functions were used to build thefittest models to predict the capacities of teachers and teacher preparation programs for elementaryeducation. The results reveal that the teacher preparation programs should be remodeled to takeaccount of the declining birthrate. Even so, the preparation system will still have an oversupply ofteachers due to the shrinking requirement for elementary education. This study proposes adjustingthe student-teacher ratio following our predicted values, as a tool for policy intervention, to providemore reasonable balancing logics of teacher supply and demand for elementary education. Theproposed models may provide examples for exploring the complicated issue of future teacher supplyand demand.自我迴歸平均移動統整模式教育政策供給與需求師資培育轉換模式ARIMAeducation policysupply and demandteacher educationtransfer function