李宗祐Lee, Tsung-Yu陳祐丞Chen, Yu-Cheng2024-12-172024-01-312024https://etds.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/thesis/detail/ff360dcb18107994d36c9066f0430070/http://rportal.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/handle/20.500.12235/122729氣候變化以及集水區環境的變遷都會對河川逕流量產生影響，而過度的流量變動可能對水資源產生衝擊。本研究以修正後的Budyko-Fu曲線，計算臺灣各個集水區11年滑動平均之地景參數m值，並透過曲線分解法，分別去量化氣候變化和集水區地景改變對於逕流量的影響。研究結果發現，臺灣集水區雨流關係良好，但多數集水區歷年的地景參數m值有上升的趨勢，表示集水區的儲水能力隨著時間而有所提升。曲線分解法的結果，有32個集水區，氣候變化對於流量影響為正，集水區地景對於流量影響為負，其中有21個集水區整體流量變化是增加，有11個集水區整體流量變化是減少。研究中發現，歷史土地利用(包含：森林面積、農地面積或都市面積的改變)變遷並無法解釋集水區地景m值的變化趨勢。部分集水區因為流量大於雨量或流量偏低使得估計的實際蒸發散量大於潛能蒸發散量而使得地景m值無法計算，表示水文收支研究在臺灣仍具有的挑戰。過往研究中利用長期水文觀測所得之單一m值，忽略了m逐漸在增加的現象，將高估未來的臺灣地表水資源。在未來降水不確定、集水區流量變化對於降水變化更加敏感下，對於將來水資源將是個重大挑戰。Climate change and environmental change in watershed can both affect the runoff, further resulting in some problem on water resources. This study uses the modified Budyko-Fu curve to calculate the landscape parameter (m values) for 11-year moving windows averages in various watersheds across Taiwan. Through Budyko-Fu curve decomposition analysis, it quantifies the impacts of climate change and landscape changes on runoff separately. The research findings reveal that the rainfall-runoff relationship in Taiwan's watersheds is fairly good. However, the majority of watersheds exhibit an increasing trend in the m values, indicating an increase in the watershed's water storage capacity over time. According to the results of curve decomposition analysis, there are the 32 watersheds where climate change has a positive impact on runoff while landscape has a negative impact. Among them, 21 watersheds show an overall increase in runoff, while 11 watersheds exhibit a decrease. It was found that historical landuse changes (including alterations in forest, agricultural land, or urban) could notexplain the changes of m values. In some watersheds, the estimated actual evapotranspiration exceeds potential evapotranspiration at the condtion of very low runoff or runoff is higher than precipitation, making the calculation of m values impossible. This indicates the persisting challenges in hydrological budget studies in Taiwan. In past studies, the use of long-term hydrological observation to calculate a single m value has overlooked the gradual increase in m, leading to an overestimation of future surface water resources in Taiwan. With future precipitation uncertainties and increased sensitivity of watershed runoff changes to precipitation variations, addressing future water resource management will pose a significant challenge.集水區地景Budyko曲線分解法彈性法Watershed landscapeBudyko curvedecomposition methodelasticity method學術論文