陳慧玲Chen, Huei-Ling林杰Lin, Chieh2024-12-172029-06-202024https://etds.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/thesis/detail/38efd18999717eb2dae89a400323578c/http://rportal.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/handle/20.500.12235/122781分析師扮演股票市場中重要資訊中介角色，投資人根據分析師發佈盈餘預測和股票推薦做投資決策。因此，分析師的預測準確性和偏頗性是投資人和學術界所關注的重要議題。本研究係探討省級人大代表選舉前，相較於同省民營證券分析師，能力好的省屬分析師對同省份地方國有企業和總部設於該省的民營企業是否發佈相對準確的盈餘預測。此外，本研究檢視係檢視省級人大代表選舉後3個月，相較於同省民營證券分析師，能力好的省屬分析師對同省份地方國有企業和總部設於該省的民營企業發佈相對準確的盈餘預測。實證分析結果顯示，在省級人大代表選舉前後，能力佳省屬分析師追蹤同省國有企業和總部設於該省民營企業時，其相對盈餘預測準確性和同省民營證券公司分析師並未有顯著差異。額外分析結果亦顯示，省級人大代表選舉對於不同才能省屬分析師相對盈餘預測準確性，並未有顯著影響。Analysts play a critical role as information intermediaries in the stock market. Investors make investment decisions based on analysts' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations. Hence, it is crucial for investors and academics to know the accuracy and bias of analysts' forecasts. This study investigates, before the Provincial People's Congress election, compared to private securities analysts from the same province, whether more capable provincial analysts issue relatively accurate earnings forecasts for local state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises headquartered in the same province. Additionally, within three monthsfollowing the Provincial People's Congress election, this study examines whether, compared to private securities analysts from the same province, more capable provincial analysts issue relatively accurate earnings forecasts for local state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises headquartered in the same province. The empirical results indicate no significant difference in the relative earnings forecast accuracy between more capable provincial and private securities analysts when following local state-owned and non-state-ownedenterprises headquartered in the same province before and after the Provincial People's Congress elections. Sensitivity analysis results also show that the Provincial People's Congress election does not significantly affect the relative earnings forecast accuracy of provincial analysts with various capabilities.盈餘預測分析師能力省級人大代表選舉Earnings forecastAnalyst abilityProvincial People's Congress elections學術論文