黃啟祐Huang, Chi-Yo謝佩錡Hsieh, Pei-Chi2019-09-04不公開2019-09-042017http://etds.lib.ntnu.edu.tw/cgi-bin/gs32/gsweb.cgi?o=dstdcdr&s=id=%22G0004702314%22.&%22.id.&http://rportal.lib.ntnu.edu.tw:80/handle/20.500.12235/98376面臨全球競爭日益激烈的環境之下，新產品開發專案為資訊科技公司提升競爭力、持續獲利的關鍵，近年來虛擬實境 (Virtual Reality) 技術快速發展，為各大資訊科技廠商亟欲發展之領域。然而，即使許多虛擬實境時代來臨似乎已經勢不可擋，但要準確掌握虛擬實境商機，開發新產品，並且獲利，並不容易。虛擬實境技術的關鍵成功要素在於軟硬體整合應用，且市場尚未成熟，資訊科技公司欲開發虛擬實境專案不僅技術複雜，導入時程亦久。由於不確定性因素甚多，資訊科技公司投資虛擬實境專案之風險亟高，因此企業需要更精準評估專案價值，以降低投資風險。傳統評估研發專案投資之方式，主要為淨現值法或實質選擇權分析法，但因為前述方法假設計畫執行期間，每年收益固定，或者計畫所有數字與資訊明確，而忽略現實世界中，研發計劃所有可能的不確定性，因此，組織極可能錯估投資專案的真實價值。為了能夠修正傳統淨現值法或者實質選擇權分析於未來不確定性極高、專案價值無法正確評估之缺陷，本研究擬導入基於多準則決策分析架構之模糊實質選擇權法 (Fuzzy Real Options Valuation)，評估虛擬實境研發專案之投資風險。本研究首先回顧文獻，歸納評價研發專案之關鍵要素後，邀集專家，確認要素之正確性，導入決策實驗室分析基礎之網路層級分析法 (DNP), 依據專家意見，訂定評價虛擬實境研發專案關鍵要素之權重後，並導入模糊實質選擇權分析法，正確評價專案。本研究以某資訊科技大廠之虛擬實境研發專案之評價，實證本研究架構之可行性，研究結果可作為資訊科技業評估虛擬實境專案價值之依據。成功驗證之分析架構，也可做為未來科技業評估未來不確定、資訊不明確專案之用。With the challenge of the increasingly competitive environment in global industries, the new product development has become the core value to enhance the competition and increase business profitability for an Information Technology (IT) company. Nowadays, Virtual Reality (VR) is known as one of the most popular technologies in the field of IT. In view of the potential of VR marketing, a number of giant enterprises (such as Facebook, Samsung, HTC, Sony...and so on) have been investing VR technology for a long time. It's overwhelming to have multiple applications in gaming, medicine, education, industry, military, etc.... However, to precisely seize the opportunity for the VR market to development new product and definitely gain the profit as well is not an easy task for an IT company. The key success factor of VR technology is the integration of software and hardware. There's the limit on VR development and its technology is not mature enough yet. Even though VR is thought to be headed, its relevant hardware and software applications are still in developing and improving. To develop VR project is undoubtedly much more sophisticated and takes more time. The uncertainties make the risk increasing on VR project investment. Therefore, managers of enterprises need a more accurate method to evaluate the value of a project investment and make an optimal decision to reduce the investment risk. Traditionally, the common valuation methods in project investment include net present value (NPV) or real options valuation (ROV), but NPV assumes the annual return is constant or the information of plan is well defined during project execution. NPV ignores the uncertainties of R&D project, in reality, and possibly misestimates the value of project investment. To amend the defects of NPV or ROV with incorrect evaluation and negligence of future uncertainty during R&D project investment, this study plans to apply Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) based Fuzzy Real Options Valuation (FROV) approach to evaluate the investment risks of VR R&D project. In this paper, firstly, we will review the literature to summarize key factors for evaluating R&D project and invite experts to confirm the accuracy of the factors to implement DEMATEL based Network Process (DNP) analysis. Then after calculating the weight of key factors of VR R&D project according to experts' opinions, we propose a Fuzzy Real Option perspective with the focus on uncertainties to evaluate the value of project properly. This study uses the VR R&D project belong to one of the world's leading companies in IT industry to prove the feasibility of the research model. The result in this study can be as the evaluation basis for the VR R&D project investment in IT industry. Furthermore, the analytic framework of successful verification by this study also can beutilized for IT industry to evaluate the project investment, whether it is with uncertain factors in the future or with vague information of the project.研發專案虛擬實境模糊實質選擇權分析法淨現值法決策實驗室分析基礎之網路層級分析法R&D Project ValuationVirtual Reality (VR)Fuzzy Real Options Valuation (FROV)DEMATEL based Network Process (DNP)Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)