西北太平洋颱風之季內至年代際變化與對臺灣之影響( II )

Abstract

本計畫將研究西北太平洋地區颱風的季內至年代際尺度變化，以及其對臺灣降雨的影 響。透過臺灣地區長期颱風歷史資料的收集，從清代的歷史文獻記載、日本殖民時代 的颱風記錄到現今的颱風觀測，加上日本與菲律賓的颱風記錄收集，本研究將會分析 西北太平洋地區的颱風個數、路徑、生成位置、強度等各種時間尺度變化。透過分析， 期望尋找出西北太平洋地區颱風與海溫、季內震盪、聖嬰與南方震盪、太陽活躍程度、 大氣環流間的相關機制。本研究也將探討臺灣降雨與西北太平洋颱風，從季內至年代 際尺度變化間的關係。

This project intends to investigate the intraseasonal to interdecadal variability of typhoons over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its impact on the Taiwan rainfalls. We will collect the long-term historical typhoon data in Taiwan from the Ching dynasty, Japanese colonial era to the present for this wide time-scale typhoon study. These data along with other historical typhoon records from Japan and Philippine, the variations of typhoon numbers, tracks, genesis and intensity will be analyzed. The possible physical connection of above typhoon variability with the sea surface temperature (SST), Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), solar activities, and the related general circulations will be investigated. The intraseasonal to interdecadal variability of WNP typhoons and its influences to the rainfalls in Taiwan will be examined.