台東縣八八水災整合災害防治、人文關懷及社區重建之參與式行動研究-氣候變遷下環境敏感區的時空變異及原住民族的因應策略－以台東太麻里溪流域為例

Abstract

本研究預計以三年時間，進行氣候變遷下環境敏感區的時空變異，以及原住民社區 的因應策略之研究，並以台東太麻里溪流域作為案例探討，各年度研究重點摘要如下： (1)第一年將著重環境敏感區研究：太麻里溪流域地形陡峭，高強度降雨時期所觸 發之土壤沖蝕、崩塌及土石流等自然災害頻繁，本研究將以土壤水份演算模式 結合無限邊坡模式進行區域性斜坡穩定模擬，透過土壤水分演算模式模擬土壤 含水量隨降雨之動態變化，後將分析結果代入可計算邊坡穩定程度之無限邊坡 模式，搭配蒙地卡羅模擬進行小尺度動態崩塌潛勢運算，並對照流域內實際崩 塌情況，估算出土壤與植生根部凝聚力參數。 (2)第二年將著重崩塌區域地景變遷研究：探討太麻里溪不同年代時崩塌區域的地 景變遷，採取集塊模式途徑，藉由FRAGSTATS 軟體計算地景指標，並透過這 些不同的地景指標分析研究區的地景特性，進行相關分析，另外，利用空間自 相關方法，計算指標Moran’s I 及G statistics，據此判釋不同年代時崩塌區域的 空間熱點，並比較不同尺度下空間自相關分析法識別崩塌區域空間熱點之成效。 (3)第三年將著重原住民社區因應氣候變遷的策略規劃：應用模糊德爾菲法專家問 卷方式，研擬氣候變遷下原住民社區永續發展指標，再以層級分析法進行指標 的權重計算，找出社區發展的重要因素，並據此研擬因應氣候變遷的永續發展 策略。另外，由於公眾參與地理資訊系統(PPGIS)可結合公眾參與概念與地理資 訊系統技術，且能做為權益關係人與社區規劃者之溝通平台，故本研究將應用 PPGIS 技術進行原住民社區永續發展之規劃。

This research would be conducted for three years in order to study the spatial-temporal variability of environmental sensitive area and responsive strategies of aboriginal communities under climate change in the Taimali stream watershed in Taitung. The key points of this research for each year are as following: (1)The first year we will focus on the landslide probability. Due to steep terrain and fragile geology, soil erosions, landslides and debris flow triggered by intensive rainfall occur frequently in the Taimali watershed. The probability of slope stability is analyzed through this method composed of hydrological model and the infinite slope model. We simulate soil moisture varied with rainfall by using Soil Moisture Routing Model, and then calculated dynamic landslides susceptibility with infinite slope model and Monte Carlo simulation. Besides, we also deduced the minimum root cohesion and soil cohesion of maintaining slope stability. (2)The second year we will focus on the landscape change of landslide area, especially for the comparison of different years in the Taimali watershed. We will apply the lump model approach and the FRAGSTATS software to calculate the landscape indices. Through these different landscape indices, we will compare with different landscape characteristics in various years and to conduct the relationship analysis. In addition, the autocorrelation approach will be conducted to calculate the indices of Moran’s I and G statistics. Based on both indices, we try to find the hot spots of landslide area in different years. Moreover, we will also compare the outcomes of autocorrelation approach based on different scales. (3)The third year we will focus on the responsive strategies under climate change in the aboriginal communities. Through the Fuzzy Delphi Method of expert questionnaire, we will provide sustainable development indicators of aboriginal communities. Therefore, we will apply Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to calculate the indicator weighting in order to find the important factors. Based on the important indicators, we will provide some strategies for sustainable development in the aboriginal communities. In addition, the public participation geographic information system (PPGIS) is widely applied in community planning and development, because PPGIS could integrate the concept of public participation and technology of geographic information system. Because the PPGIS could be a discussion platform between stakeholders and community planners, we will apply it for sustainable development planning in aboriginal communities.