中國大陸出境旅遊對於民主化可能影響之研究
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Date
2008-01-01
Authors
范世平
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財團法人兩岸交流遠景基金會
Abstract
中國大陸從1990年代以來，出境旅遊快速發展，2003年雖逢SARS疫情肆虐，但出境旅遊人數仍高達2,022萬人次，且比前一年增長21.8%，成為全球成長最快速的客源國。在全球化浪潮下，中國大陸民眾終於也能和先進國家民眾一般地出國旅遊，直接感受迥異的政治生活方式。這種政治社會化途徑，勢必會衝擊中國大陸民眾過去以來的政治認知，長期來看更有助於民主化的發展。尤其目前出境旅遊者多為中產階級，符合西方民主化理論的推論；但另一方面，這些中產階級多為改革開放後的既得利益者，短期內反而會傾向支持中共政權以維持社會穩定，甚至與新權威主義的思維不謀而合。
Since 1990s, the numbers of China’s outbound tourists have surged. In 2003, when SARS epidemic enraged for months, Chinese tourists made 20.22 million overseas visits, up 21.8% from the previous year. China has registered the highest growth of outbound tourists in the world. Chinese tourists enjoy overseas trips like people of modern and advanced nations and have personal experiences of foreign political systems and lifestyles drastically different from China’s. Such an exposure of political socialization will present challenges to their traditional political awareness. In the long-run, overseas exposure will facilitate the spread of democratization, since most of the outbound tourists belong to the middle class. This confirms to the democratization theory in the western societies. Another preposition is that Chinese middle class are the beneficiary of reforms and opening-up, who tend to favor social stability and support the Communist regime. This reflects the new authoritarianism.
Since 1990s, the numbers of China’s outbound tourists have surged. In 2003, when SARS epidemic enraged for months, Chinese tourists made 20.22 million overseas visits, up 21.8% from the previous year. China has registered the highest growth of outbound tourists in the world. Chinese tourists enjoy overseas trips like people of modern and advanced nations and have personal experiences of foreign political systems and lifestyles drastically different from China’s. Such an exposure of political socialization will present challenges to their traditional political awareness. In the long-run, overseas exposure will facilitate the spread of democratization, since most of the outbound tourists belong to the middle class. This confirms to the democratization theory in the western societies. Another preposition is that Chinese middle class are the beneficiary of reforms and opening-up, who tend to favor social stability and support the Communist regime. This reflects the new authoritarianism.