東亞氣候的多重尺度交互作用---台灣百年氣候之再研究
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2008/08-2009/07
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近年來，在全球暖化過程中，對於局部地區的影響，不管是氣候平均狀態的改 變，或是極端天氣現象發生頻率的變化，都是各國氣象學者關注的焦點。台灣 百年來的氣候變遷，雖然有相當多的研究嘗試去解答與描述，然而受限於觀測 數據的時間限制，大多集中在研究一九五０年代後到現今的氣候變遷。儘管台 灣的部分氣象測站有約百年的觀測歷史，然而因為缺乏對早期資料來源的文史 調查與紀錄，測站搬遷往往造成觀測數據分析上的困難。本研究將重新找尋清 代台灣的珍貴氣象觀測，加上整理日本在台時期總督府氣象台的各式氣象紀 錄，配合戰後更完整的氣象局觀測數據，重新替台灣的百年氣候找出更精確的 科學描述。在本研究中，利用重新出土的氣象觀測資料，台灣在清代幾個通商 港埠氣象紀錄，可以回推至十九世紀後期的一八八五年。這些珍貴的氣象觀測 史料，將讓過去受限於觀測數據時間長度而較難分析的台灣地區年代際（十年 以上尺度）變化，可有機會做更進一步的科學分析。日本時代在台灣各地普遍 設置的雨量觀測站，其雨量記錄也是一份可以提供與現今氣象局自動雨量站數 據比對的新素材。透過老資料的新發現，本研究將重新再研究台灣的百年氣 候，並以科學的觀點有系統分析並提出更完整的看法。
Recently, the impact of the global warming on the regional climate becomes an important topic for the public. It includes the change of the climate mean stage and the change of the probability of the extreme weather. The climate change in Taiwan for the past 100 years or longer has been studied in many previous works. However, because of the limitation of the observational length, most studies focus on the climate change after 1950s. In addition, due to lacking of detailed historical background check for each weather station, some abrupt changes are difficult to interpret if the weather stations have moved from one place to the other in unknown years. In this project, we plan to do a detailed check for these weather stations and analyze their long observational data. We will also find several old weather records in Taiwan back into the Ching dynasty (since 1885). Using these old weather data, along with detailed descriptions for the history of each weather station, the study of the decadal variations and the climate change in Taiwan can be done by extending the weather observations to late 19th century in Taiwan. Many rainfall observations collected in Japanese colonial era will be also digitalized and analyzed to compare with the current observations by the Central Weather Bureau.
Recently, the impact of the global warming on the regional climate becomes an important topic for the public. It includes the change of the climate mean stage and the change of the probability of the extreme weather. The climate change in Taiwan for the past 100 years or longer has been studied in many previous works. However, because of the limitation of the observational length, most studies focus on the climate change after 1950s. In addition, due to lacking of detailed historical background check for each weather station, some abrupt changes are difficult to interpret if the weather stations have moved from one place to the other in unknown years. In this project, we plan to do a detailed check for these weather stations and analyze their long observational data. We will also find several old weather records in Taiwan back into the Ching dynasty (since 1885). Using these old weather data, along with detailed descriptions for the history of each weather station, the study of the decadal variations and the climate change in Taiwan can be done by extending the weather observations to late 19th century in Taiwan. Many rainfall observations collected in Japanese colonial era will be also digitalized and analyzed to compare with the current observations by the Central Weather Bureau.