伴隨短期氣候變化的極端天氣預報技術發展---子計畫---熱帶季內季風模對西北太平洋颱風移行的影響---次月尺度概念預報模式之發展(I)

Abstract

本計畫為國科會永續會「防災科技研究計畫」整合型計劃「伴隨短期氣候變化的 極端天氣預報技術發展」下的第一子計畫「熱帶季內季風模對西北太平洋颱風移行的 影響:次月尺度概念預報模式之發展」。計畫為期兩年。預期達成的技術目標為:(1)建 立短期(30 天)內，西北太平洋颱風季颱風活動(生成、強度與移行)的概念預警模式， 以及(2)發展颱風生成後，侵(臨)臺的統計預報雛型。上述目標的達成有賴於下述之科 學研究:(1)建立準雙週(10-25 天)震盪在西北太平洋的綜觀氣候(synoptic climatology);(2)釐清準雙週震盪與颱風之間的關係及交互作用，以及(3)配合其他子 計畫，分析上述兩課題在不同的聖嬰/南方震盪(ENSO;El Nino/Southern Oscillation) 條件，與不同的30-60 天MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation)的相位背景下，可能呈現 的年際與季節變化。計畫第二年的總目標為釐清準雙週震盪與颱風活動之間的關係。 第三年則為評估利用季內震盪預報短期(30 天)颱風活動的可預報度。

This project entitled “Influences of tropical intraseasonal monsoon modes on the western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon movement: Development of conceptual prediction model in a sub-monthly timescale” is the first sub-project of the NSC/SDRC collective research project “Development of forecasting technique for the weather extremes associated with short-term climate variability”. This sub-project will last for two years and aim at the following practical goals: 1) to build a conceptual model for monitoring the typhoon activity (genesis, intensity, and track) in the sub-monthly (30 days) time scale during the western North Pacific typhoon seasons, and 2) to develop a prototype of statistical model for predicting the possibility of typhoon affecting Taiwan area after genesis. The establishment of these goals depends on the following research works: 1) accomplish the synoptic climatology of quasi-bi-weekly (10-25-day) oscillation in the WNP, 2) clarify the relationship and interactions between QBW and typhoon activity, and 3) analyze the influences of ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) and MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) on the above two issues to reveal their possible interannual and seasonal variations. The overall goal in the second year is to clarify the inter-relationships between the QBW and typhoon activity. And, the one in the third year is to assess the predictability of short-term (30-day) typhoon activity by the use of intraseasonal oscillations.