石油價格與低生產要素替代性 – 實質景氣循環模型應用 – 以台灣為例
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2013/08-2014/07
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國際原油價格自1970年代起，對台灣有持續性的影響，近年來國際原油價格居 高不下，使得台灣更受到此波輸入型產出面的衝擊， 因此應用在台灣的實質景 氣循環 (REC） 或一般動態模型 (的GE）必須考慮油價格波動因素，以減少估計的誤 差產生。本文期望建立起一REC或的GE模型，更為準確地提供學界或政府部門 參考的模型，特別是考慮石油價格波動的基本架構。第二、台灣民眾普遍感受 實質薪資逐年下降的生活壓力，本計畫嘗試解釋薪資漲幅過於緩慢，其中一重 要因素來自於石油價格的持續波動與高漲，因為廠商在生產要素替代過程中， 以低階勞動力替換了資本與能源，這樣的選擇導致生產要素的邊際產能不能提 高，產商獲利空間壓縮，勞工薪資無法顯著的成長。希望此兩年期計畫所衍生 的實證結果與持續的模型改造，可以提出更有突破性對本國工資停滯成長之解 釋，並且此模型與實證結果可作為未來政策制定時，有關單位的參考之依據。
The price of crude oil has constantly influenced Taiwan since the 1970s. Particularly, the highly rising crude oil price recently has played imported supply disturbances to Taiwan. Thus, the applications of Real Business Cycles (RBCs) or Dynamically General Equilibrium (DGE) models need to consider the source of crude oil in order to reduce estimated errors for Taiwanese economy. Secondly, Taiwanese workers have experienced stagnant wage growth and are facing pressure from costs of living. This project tends to explain that one of the main reasons causing stagnant wage growth is from high crude oil price. Firms and producers choose to apply unskilled workers to substitute capital-energy composite in the period of high price of crude oil. In addition, this substitution effect makes low growth of marginal productivity for firms and then causes stagnant growth of wages. We hope our two-year project can provide a breaking through way to explain the stagnant growth of wage in Taiwan. Moreover, the model itself and empirical results can be applied as references for policy makers and academia in the future.
The price of crude oil has constantly influenced Taiwan since the 1970s. Particularly, the highly rising crude oil price recently has played imported supply disturbances to Taiwan. Thus, the applications of Real Business Cycles (RBCs) or Dynamically General Equilibrium (DGE) models need to consider the source of crude oil in order to reduce estimated errors for Taiwanese economy. Secondly, Taiwanese workers have experienced stagnant wage growth and are facing pressure from costs of living. This project tends to explain that one of the main reasons causing stagnant wage growth is from high crude oil price. Firms and producers choose to apply unskilled workers to substitute capital-energy composite in the period of high price of crude oil. In addition, this substitution effect makes low growth of marginal productivity for firms and then causes stagnant growth of wages. We hope our two-year project can provide a breaking through way to explain the stagnant growth of wage in Taiwan. Moreover, the model itself and empirical results can be applied as references for policy makers and academia in the future.