整合地理空間與地球觀測資料探究氣候暖化下臺灣乾旱的時空變異特徵及其對區域水資源與植被生態的衝擊
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2013/08-2014/07
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利用臺灣地區 1 公里解析度、長度 50 年(1960-2009)的網格化月均温和累積雨量資 料庫，計畫將應用新近發展但經修正算符推估參數使其適用於臺灣季風氣候的標準化 降雨–蒸發散指數(Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI)，以及學界慣 用的標準化降雨指數(Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI)，在 2 年規畫期內完成以下的 研究課題： (1) 建置 1 公里解析度、具備多重時間尺度的氣候/氣象乾旱地圖資料庫； (2) 利用此資料庫和 SPEI 具備的多重時間尺度特性，探究季節、年際、年代際時 間尺度下，影響臺灣地區乾旱條件的大氣–海洋過程。我們將先鎖定社經影響 層面廣泛的春季乾旱，對其進行過程診斷並定義熱點區域； (3) 定義適切的統計分佈函數，標準化水庫入流量(Standardized Streamflow Index, SSI)，分析前述乾旱條件對區域水資源的衝擊暨復原時間； (4) 利用地球觀測的高解析度 NDVI 資料庫(NOAA-AVHRR)、植被條件指數 (Vegetation Condition Index, VCI)、植被健康指數(Vegetation Health Index, VHI)，分析前述乾旱條件對區域植被活動的衝擊暨復原時間； (5) 比較未同化氣温資訊的 SPI 在項次(2)-(4)的重覆分析結果，探討氣候暖化下， 臺灣地區乾旱是否正在加遽?是否已對區域水資源和植被生態有所衝擊? 研究成果預期可作為利用空間資訊和衛星遙測發展高辨率乾旱風險即時監測系統 的重要依據。
With the availability of a complete 50-yr (1960-2009) monthly gridded (1-km resolution) temperature and precipitation data over Taiwan area, this study will use the newly developed SPEI (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index) suited to the monsoonal climate of Taiwan after modifying the parameter-estimated algorithm, and conventional SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) to establish the following tasks within the planned 2-yr period. (1) We will construct a multi-timescale climatic/meteorological drought map databank with a 1-km resolution over Taiwan area. (2) Having this databank and utilizing the multi-timescale characteristic of SPEI, we will explore the linkages between the regional drought conditions and underlying atmosphere-ocean processes in the seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal timescales. Due to its widespread societal and economic impacts, we will first focus on the springtime drought and perform the process diagnostics to identify the hot spot regions. (3) After identifying the appropriate statistical distribution function to standardize reservoir inflow (Standardized Streamflow Index, SSI), we will analyze the impacts of various drought conditions on the regional water resource as well as its resilience time. (4) Using the high resolution EO’s NDVI (NOAA-AVHRR), VCI (Vegetation Condition Index), and VHI (Vegetation Health Index) datasets, we will analyze the impacts of various drought conditions on the regional vegetation activity as well as its resilience time. (5) Repeating the analyses of previous items but using the SPI which does not ensemble the temperature and comparing with the results from SPEI, we will able to reveal that whether the drought condition in Taiwan is enhancing and is impacting the regional water resources and vegetation ecosystem when our climate is warming. Outcomes of this study are expected to serve as an important basis for the development of the real-time monitoring drought risk system using the geospatial and remote sensing data.
With the availability of a complete 50-yr (1960-2009) monthly gridded (1-km resolution) temperature and precipitation data over Taiwan area, this study will use the newly developed SPEI (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index) suited to the monsoonal climate of Taiwan after modifying the parameter-estimated algorithm, and conventional SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) to establish the following tasks within the planned 2-yr period. (1) We will construct a multi-timescale climatic/meteorological drought map databank with a 1-km resolution over Taiwan area. (2) Having this databank and utilizing the multi-timescale characteristic of SPEI, we will explore the linkages between the regional drought conditions and underlying atmosphere-ocean processes in the seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal timescales. Due to its widespread societal and economic impacts, we will first focus on the springtime drought and perform the process diagnostics to identify the hot spot regions. (3) After identifying the appropriate statistical distribution function to standardize reservoir inflow (Standardized Streamflow Index, SSI), we will analyze the impacts of various drought conditions on the regional water resource as well as its resilience time. (4) Using the high resolution EO’s NDVI (NOAA-AVHRR), VCI (Vegetation Condition Index), and VHI (Vegetation Health Index) datasets, we will analyze the impacts of various drought conditions on the regional vegetation activity as well as its resilience time. (5) Repeating the analyses of previous items but using the SPI which does not ensemble the temperature and comparing with the results from SPEI, we will able to reveal that whether the drought condition in Taiwan is enhancing and is impacting the regional water resources and vegetation ecosystem when our climate is warming. Outcomes of this study are expected to serve as an important basis for the development of the real-time monitoring drought risk system using the geospatial and remote sensing data.