高速公路計程電子收費實施前後對短程用路人旅運選擇行為之影響分析

Abstract

國道高速公路將於民國10 1年底全線實施計程通行費制度，此一制度實施後，將對於原本行駛於收費站間短程(尤其是都會區)旅次且不須付費之用路人產生明顯衝擊。本研究即欲針對這群短程用路人於計程電子收費制度「實施前後」之接受程度，及對替代道路轉移障礙等因素的認知，探討其繼續留駛於高速公路或轉移至替代道路之選擇行為。第一階段(民國101年底前)，本研究將透過問卷調查及線性結構方程式(SEM)，分析高速公路計程電子收費「實施前」，短程用路人心理歷程及相關因素對其旅運選擇行為之影響，主要探討認知性潛在意向影響變數包括有公平性、效率性、計程收費政策接受度、替代道路轉移障礙等。其次，將利用對短程用路人相關情境方案(包含計程費率水準及替代道路狀況)之敘述性偏好(Stated Preference)資料，建構結合認知性潛在意向變數之短程用路人旅運選擇模式；最後，則利用選擇模式相關彈性係數分析在不同計程費率水準及不同旅次特性下，潛在意向變數對選擇(轉移)行為之影響效果，以預測短程路用路人之留駛或轉移機率。 第二階段(民國102年以後)，本研究除大致依循同於第一階段之研究架構，並增加計程電子收費實施前後之認知性潛在意向、轉移選擇行為以及使用者效益變動之差異分析。首先即針對計程電子收費「實施後」，在既定計程費率水準下，分析高速公路短程用路人心理歷程對其旅運(轉移)選擇行為之影響，並構建包含潛在意向變數之短程用路人顯示性偏好(Revealed Preference)旅運選擇模式。其次，將針對計程電子收費制度「實施前後」，探討短程用路人潛在意向變數之改變，以及對其旅運(轉移)選擇行為之影響變化，進而分析不同行為意向與旅次特性之短程用路人留駛或轉移機率之變化。最後，計程電子收費實施前後對短程用路人之差別，主要在於有無支付通行費，以及原行駛高速公路與轉移行駛替代道路之間所花費旅行時間及成本之差異，進而因所謂「價格變動」對短程用路人效用造成福利變動。本研究將利用消費者剩餘相關衡量方法，估計程電子收費制度「實施前後」短程用路人之使用者效益變化，以為政府推動計程電子收費實施成效之參考。

In the last of 2012 the distance-base toll collection system will be adopted on the whole national freeway. While the implementation of the distance base electronic toll collection system, there will be the significant impact on the short-range (especially urban areas) road user, which originally travel between the toll stations and not have to pay. This study is intended to explore the choice behavior of these short-range road users that will either stay to drive on the freeway or switch to the alternative route, through these cognitive factors such as their acceptance to distance-base toll collection system, and the switch obstacles of alternative roads. First, the study will employ the questionnaire and structural equation model (SEM) to analyst the mental processes and the related factors that will influence the behavior of freeway short-range road users after adopting the distance base toll collection. This part of the study mainly discusses the cognitive latent variables, as well as the interaction relationship among those factors, including “the perceived fairness ", "the cognitive effect and efficiency”, " the acceptance of the distance base charging policy”, and "the switch obstacles ", and these factors will influence the short-range road user’s behavior. Second, this study will utilize the analytic framework of the road user’s decision-making behavior influenced by the psychological intention, and the stated preference data related to the scenarios of the switch alternative, and the cognitive latent factors, to establish the disaggregate choice model joined with the latent variables of the road user’s mental processes Finally, under the various distance-base rate levels and the various trip lengths, the relative flexibility coefficients and the marginal probability of the disaggregate choice model will be used to measure the effect of their choice behavior by the key latent variables of the intention of the switch behavior, such as the acceptance of the distance-base toll collection system and the switch obstacles of the alternative route etc.). In the meanwhile the probabilities of staying to drive on freeway or switching to alternative route will also be predicted with the various road users’ intentions in this study. These results could be referred to reform the relative policy for implementation of the distance-base electronic toll collection by the government.