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The Analysis of the Disputes and Impacts of the Termination Clause in Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement
Huang Cheng Ph.D
free trade agreement
reginal economic integration
After decades of hostility, Taiwan and China have experienced substantial adjustments on both the political and economic structures. Today, both sidescould put aside their differences, walk to the negotiation table and try hard to reach their consensus. After President Ma Ying-jeou took office, both Taiwan and China deliberately cultivated friendly atmosphere so that made possible the signing of the “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)" between the Taiwan Straits on June 29, 2010. Since then the ECFA becomes the most important and far-reaching agreement that Taiwan and China have signed during the past six years. The agreement also marks the label that the cross-strait relation has entered a new era of institutionalized cooperation. What makes the signing of ECFA so crucial to Taiwan is that through this agreement which truly realizes the cross-straits economic cooperation, Taiwan now may participate in most of the Asia-Pacific region and the world economic activities. Furthermore, Taiwan government may strengthen its national security after the signing of ECFA. But inside Taiwan, both the ruling and opposition parties on their respective positions agree to include the "termination clause" into the provisions of ECFA. Because of the unique historical relationship between Taiwan and China, the termination clause of ECFA implies further political manipulations. In order to clarify the influence of the termination clause of ECFA on Taiwan and China relations, this study tries to analyze the relevant disputes and effects on the termination clause. This study also tries to organize the society views at Taiwan on the influence of the termination clause of ECFA through varies literature collections and interviews. The following conclusions are reached in this study： 1、ECFA is an agreement of compromise from which Taiwan and China may each acquire what it needs. 2、The core of the relative disputes on the termination clause is that this clause can become the tool of the political manipulation. 3、This study believes that the termination clause would be initiated when the mutual trust of Taiwan and China no longer exists. Hence, once the termination clause is initiated it would cause the collapse of the cross-strait relations. In any event, the probability of triggering this termination clause is highly unlikely.. 4、The termination clause on this stage causes barely minimum effect on Taiwan's current politics. 5、There is no uniform timetable for the mainland China to unify Taiwan, the future of both Taiwan and China still takes time to establish their mutual trust and recognition.
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