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Statistical Modeling of Extreme Rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia Using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distribution
In this study, we have used the maximum daily rainfall data from a total of 22 automatic rainfall stations obtained from Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia (DIDM) during 1971-2007. We have made use of the annual and seasonal maximum daily rainfall data to analyze extreme rainfall in Malaysia. We have also applied the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to model the occurrence probability of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia. The results showed that the greatest rainfall intensity was found in the east coast of Malaysia, while the lowest extreme rainfall intensity was found in the west central areas. Besides, our study also highlights a positive trend of extreme rainfall event that occurred at west central region in recent year. This result also suggests a likely increase of extreme flooding events in Malaysia in the coming years. For seasonal analysis, it is suggested that a rising flood disaster would possibly be affecting west central areas during the spring (MAM) and autumn (SON), while the northern part of Peninsula would probably suffered from the drought disaster during SON. We have also used the GEV distribution to calculate the return value for the 50-year and 100-year return periods. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is suggested to be the best estimation in this study based on the result of goodness-of-fit. In this study, we have also noticed an apparent difference between the western and eastern parts of Peninsular Malaysia on the variation scale of return level, in which the variation recorded in the eastern region was greater than that of the western region. In addition, the observed rainfall level in the western region had exceeded the 100-year return level estimation. Our results suggest that deliberation is needed in the use of the GEV distribution for the estimation of the return levels of extreme rainfall in the western part of Peninsular Malaysia. For the spatial pattern of the extreme rainfall, our results also suggest that there is a shift in the spatial distribution of the extreme rainfall in recent years.
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